Matchup context
Home: Hull City AFC — 3rd (P2 W2 D0 L0, GF 3 GA 0, 6 pts, form WW). Last five: A Coventry City FC 1-0 (W), H Manchester United FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 0.72 from 2 matches.
Away: Aston Villa FC — 20th (P2 W0 D0 L2, GF 0 GA 5, 0 pts, form LL). Last five: H Arsenal FC 0-1 (L), A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-4 (L), A Manchester City FC 2-1 (W), H Liverpool FC 4-2 (W), A Burnley FC 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 0.94, defence 1.15 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.81 vs 0.83; home 60.6% · draw 22.7% · away 16.8%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 49%; both teams to score 47%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-05 12:55 UTC): home 4.35 · draw 3.7 · away 1.85; over/under 2.5: 1.91/1.91.