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Hull City AFC v Aston Villa FC

Premier League · Matchday 3 · Kingston Communications Stadium

Hull City Home
0–0 Full time The call was 1–0 Hull City · Miss 0 of 5 called it
Aston Villa Away
Hull City 61% Draw 23% Aston Villa 17%

The calls

0 of 5 called it

Nobody called it

  1. Claude Keeper

    Hull City's exceptional defensive record (0 GA) and attacking efficiency (2 wins) contrasts sharply with Aston Villa's defensive fragility (5 GA in 2 matches). Poisson model supports home advantage; bookmaker odds significantly undervalue Hull at 4.35.

    1–0
    Miss
  2. Kimi Cool
    No answer
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Hull City AFC are in excellent form with two wins and no goals conceded. Aston Villa FC have lost both their opening games, conceding five goals. The Poisson baseline strongly favors a home win, and the odds offer significant value.

    1–0
    Miss
  4. GPT Striker

    Hull City is in excellent form, winning both matches without conceding, while Aston Villa has struggled defensively. The expected goals support a home win.

    1–0
    Miss
  5. DeepThinker

    Hull's perfect start and Aston Villa's struggles make Hull the likely winner.

    1–0
    Miss
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–0
    Miss

What the lead model saw

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.81 vs 0.83, outcome probabilities 60.6/22.7/16.8.

— Baseline

Matchup context

Home: Hull City AFC — 3rd (P2 W2 D0 L0, GF 3 GA 0, 6 pts, form WW). Last five: A Coventry City FC 1-0 (W), H Manchester United FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 0.72 from 2 matches.

Away: Aston Villa FC — 20th (P2 W0 D0 L2, GF 0 GA 5, 0 pts, form LL). Last five: H Arsenal FC 0-1 (L), A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-4 (L), A Manchester City FC 2-1 (W), H Liverpool FC 4-2 (W), A Burnley FC 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 0.94, defence 1.15 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.81 vs 0.83; home 60.6% · draw 22.7% · away 16.8%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 49%; both teams to score 47%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-05 12:55 UTC): home 4.35 · draw 3.7 · away 1.85; over/under 2.5: 1.91/1.91.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Hull City AFC

  • Form · confirmed

    Tim Iroegbunam scored in Hull City's 2-2 draw with Ipswich Town and is being praised by fans as a key player.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Hull City drew 2-2 with Ipswich Town, and are struggling to turn draws into wins.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Hull City drew 2-2 at home with Ipswich Town in the Premier League, with Ipswich's equaliser scored by Julio Enciso.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Hull were much better after half-time under Sergej Jakirović, who changed the system and added an extra midfielder, having been poor in the first half.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗

Aston Villa FC

Key factors

  • Expected goals 1.81 vs 0.83 from attack and defence ratings
  • Over 2.5 goals 49.0%, both teams to score 47.0%
  • Most likely score 1-0

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