Matchup context
Home: SV Werder Bremen — 10th (P3 W1 D1 L1, GF 5 GA 6, 4 pts, form DWL). Last five: A 1. FC Köln 1-1 (D), H RB Leipzig 3-1 (W), A SC Freiburg 1-4 (L), H Borussia Dortmund 0-2 (L), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.79, defence 1.01 from 20 matches.
Away: FC Augsburg — 3rd (P3 W2 D1 L0, GF 9 GA 3, 7 pts, form DWW). Last five: H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-2 (D), A Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 (W), H FC Schalke 04 3-0 (W), A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-4 (L), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.13, defence 0.97 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-02 SV Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg; 2025-12-20 FC Augsburg 0-0 SV Werder Bremen.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.39 vs 1.66; home 32.3% · draw 23.9% · away 43.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 58.7%; both teams to score 60.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 2.305 · draw 3.875 · away 2.735; over/under 2.5: 1.42/2.85.