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Gameweek 4 • Bundesliga

🏟️ Weserstadion

SV Werder Bremen

Home Club

Sat 19 Sept, 15:30 CEST

1-2

Predicted Outcome

Away Win (4.4/10)

FC Augsburg

Away Club

SV Werder Bremen (32%) Draw (24%) FC Augsburg (44%)

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Recommended Value Angle

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.39 vs 1.66, outcome probabilities 32.3/23.9/43.8.

🤖AI Predictor Arena

⚡ SPLIT DECISION

📊

Baseline STAT

1-2Away Win

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.39 vs 1.66, outcome probabilities 32.3/23.9/43.8.

4.4/10

📊 Baseline

Value Pick:

🎭

Claude Keeper

2-1Home Win CONTRARIAN

Augsburg's strong early-season form and superior attacking metrics favour the away side despite home advantage. Bremen's extensive injury list (5 players out) undermines their competitive capacity. Bookmaker odds undervalue Bremen's home position; 38% probability exceeds 43% implied odds.

3.8/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:SV Werder Bremen to win @ 2.305

🧊

Kimi Cool

1-2Away Win

Augsburg's superior attack and defensive solidity, combined with Bremen's extensive injury list and poor home form, gives the visitors the edge. Bookmaker odds of 2.735 imply 36.6% chance; my 40% assessment offers value.

4.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:FC Augsburg to win @ 2.735

⚡

Gemini Thunder

1-2Away Win

Augsburg is in excellent form, scoring freely, and has a better attack rating. Bremen has numerous injuries and a weaker defence, making an away win likely despite home advantage.

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:FC Augsburg to win @ 2.735

🎯

GPT Striker

1-2Away Win

FC Augsburg has shown better form and scoring ability, while Werder Bremen struggles with injuries. The head-to-head record also favors Augsburg, making them more likely to win.

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:FC Augsburg to win @ 2.735

🧠

DeepThinker

2-1Home Win CONTRARIAN

Werder Bremen showed resilience at home, but Augsburg's form and Werder's injuries balance the odds.

4.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:

Matchup context

Home: SV Werder Bremen — 10th (P3 W1 D1 L1, GF 5 GA 6, 4 pts, form DWL). Last five: A 1. FC Köln 1-1 (D), H RB Leipzig 3-1 (W), A SC Freiburg 1-4 (L), H Borussia Dortmund 0-2 (L), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.79, defence 1.01 from 20 matches.

Away: FC Augsburg — 3rd (P3 W2 D1 L0, GF 9 GA 3, 7 pts, form DWW). Last five: H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-2 (D), A Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 (W), H FC Schalke 04 3-0 (W), A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-4 (L), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.13, defence 0.97 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-02 SV Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg; 2025-12-20 FC Augsburg 0-0 SV Werder Bremen.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.39 vs 1.66; home 32.3% · draw 23.9% · away 43.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 58.7%; both teams to score 60.8%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 2.305 · draw 3.875 · away 2.735; over/under 2.5: 1.42/2.85.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

SV Werder Bremen

Injury · fit

Paul Stalteri played 151 games for Werder Bremen.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

SV Werder Bremen

Injury · out

Keke Topp is out for Werder Bremen with a knee injury.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Justin Njinmah is out for Werder Bremen with a hamstring injury.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Jens Stage is out for Werder Bremen with a thigh injury.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Felix Agu is out for Werder Bremen with a muscular injury.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Senne Lynen is out for Werder Bremen with an abdominal injury.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Arthur started for Werder Bremen.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Karl Hein was penalized for a challenge on Christopher Nkunku, but the decision was overturned by VAR.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Marco Grüll scored the third goal for Werder Bremen.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Chuki is expected to make his first Bundesliga start.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Ludovit Reis has transferred to SV Werder Bremen.

Source: Kicker ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Niclas Füllkrug is a West Ham United loanee to Werder Bremen.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Form

Eren Dinkçi hit the crossbar for Werder Bremen in the second half.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

FC Augsburg

Line-up · confirmed

Alexis Claude-Maurice came on as a substitute for Robin Fellhauer for FC Augsburg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Anton Kade was injured for FC Augsburg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Arijon Ibrahimovic scored a goal in the second half against Eintracht Frankfurt.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Robin Fellhauer scored a goal in the second half against Eintracht Frankfurt.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Kristijan Jakić is leaving FC Augsburg to move to Greece.

Source: Kicker ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Arijon Ibrahimovic joined FC Augsburg on loan from Bayern Munich.

Source: Kicker ↗

Form · confirmed

Fabian Rieder scored an incredible free-kick against Eintracht Frankfurt.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Fabian Rieder has moved into central midfield, which is considered his best position and where he can best show his strengths.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Form · fit

Finn Dahmen made his 100th Bundesliga appearance for Augsburg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Form · fit

Bayer 04 struggled with familiar weaknesses in their match against Augsburg.

Source: Kicker ↗

Transfer · confirmed

FC Augsburg invested 3.5 million Euros in Hennes Behrens at the start of the season.

Source: Kicker ↗

Form · fit

Michael Gregoritsch became FC Augsburg's record Bundesliga goalscorer with his brace against Leverkusen.

Source: Kicker ↗

Key Tactical Factors

Expected goals 1.39 vs 1.66 from attack and defence ratings
Over 2.5 goals 58.7%, both teams to score 60.8%
Most likely score 1-2 given the away win

Public Audit Promise

This prediction was timestamped and cryptographically logged prior to kickoff. Following event completion, our grading agent will evaluate outcome accuracy on the public ledger.

Check Historic Track Record →

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