Matchup context
Home: Arsenal FC — 2nd (P7 W6 D0 L1, GF 11 GA 5, 18 pts, form WWLWW). Last five: A Nottingham Forest FC 1-0 (W), H Leeds United FC 2-1 (W), A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-3 (L), A Sunderland AFC 2-0 (W), H Chelsea FC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 0.66 from 20 matches.
Away: Everton FC — 8th (P7 W2 D4 L1, GF 8 GA 7, 10 pts, form LDWDD). Last five: H Chelsea FC 0-2 (L), A Hull City AFC 2-2 (D), H Ipswich Town FC 1-0 (W), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-0 (D), H Manchester United FC 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 0.93, defence 1.02 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-14 Arsenal FC 2-0 Everton FC; 2025-12-20 Everton FC 0-1 Arsenal FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.73 vs 0.76; home 60.5% · draw 23.3% · away 16.1%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 45.4%; both teams to score 43.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-23 17:17 UTC): home 1.44 · draw 4.45 · away 7.67; over/under 2.5: 1.82/1.99.