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Arsenal FC v Everton FC

Premier League · Matchday 8 · Emirates Stadium

Arsenal Home
2–0 Full time The call was 2–0 Arsenal · Hit 5 of 5 called it
Everton Away
Arsenal 68% Draw 20% Everton 12%

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match Claude Keeper, 2–0 · Exact score

  1. Claude Keeper

    Arsenal's dominant form, superior ratings, and recent H2H dominance strongly favour the home side. Everton's squad depth issues and inconsistent results (4 draws in 7) suggest vulnerability. Bookmaker odds (1.44) undervalue Arsenal's probability relative to underlying metrics.

    2–0
    Exact score Model of the match
  2. Kimi Cool

    Arsenal's elite defence and strong home form against Everton's limited squad depth. Bookmaker implied home probability 69% vs my 68% is marginal, but Arsenal's quality edge justifies slight value.

    2–0
    Hit
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Arsenal, with a strong home record and superior ratings, are clear favorites. Everton's recent form and lower standing suggest a tough match. The head-to-head also supports an Arsenal victory, likely with a clean sheet.

    2–0
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    Arsenal has been dominant at home and has a solid head-to-head record against Everton. Everton's recent form has been poor, further tilting the odds in favor of Arsenal.

    2–0
    Hit
  5. DeepThinker

    Arsenal's strong form and Everton's defensive issues suggest a likely home win, supported by recent head-to-head results.

    2–0
    Hit
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–0
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Arsenal's elite defence and strong home form against Everton's limited squad depth. Bookmaker implied home probability 69% vs my 68% is marginal, but Arsenal's quality edge justifies slight value.

— Kimi Cool

Market: Arsenal FC to win · market 69%

Matchup context

Home: Arsenal FC — 2nd (P7 W6 D0 L1, GF 11 GA 5, 18 pts, form WWLWW). Last five: A Nottingham Forest FC 1-0 (W), H Leeds United FC 2-1 (W), A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-3 (L), A Sunderland AFC 2-0 (W), H Chelsea FC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 0.66 from 20 matches.

Away: Everton FC — 8th (P7 W2 D4 L1, GF 8 GA 7, 10 pts, form LDWDD). Last five: H Chelsea FC 0-2 (L), A Hull City AFC 2-2 (D), H Ipswich Town FC 1-0 (W), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-0 (D), H Manchester United FC 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 0.93, defence 1.02 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-14 Arsenal FC 2-0 Everton FC; 2025-12-20 Everton FC 0-1 Arsenal FC.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.73 vs 0.76; home 60.5% · draw 23.3% · away 16.1%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 45.4%; both teams to score 43.9%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-23 17:17 UTC): home 1.44 · draw 4.45 · away 7.67; over/under 2.5: 1.82/1.99.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Arsenal FC

  • Form · confirmed

    Arsenal beat Liverpool 1-0 away in a Premier League match, according to the linked match report.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Ezri Konsa has been praised by BBC Sport analysts for fitting in seamlessly at Arsenal after his summer move from Aston Villa.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Arsenal beat Liverpool 1-0 away in the Premier League at Anfield.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Arsenal won 1-0 away at Liverpool in a Premier League match.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

Everton FC

  • Form · confirmed

    Everton beat Newcastle United 3-1 in the Carabao Cup to reach the fifth round, with Thierno Barry scoring the winning goal.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Tyrique George played on the left flank in Everton's 3-1 Carabao Cup win over Newcastle, a position Grealish might have been expected to occupy.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Everton have a very small senior squad, reported as only 18 senior players after a botched transfer window, which limits Moyes's options.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Suspension · out

    Jack Grealish was left out of Everton's squad for the Carabao Cup tie against Newcastle after a breach of club discipline, specifically failing to turn up for training on Monday.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Arsenal FC

  • Line-up · confirmed

    Aaron Ramsdale lost his starting berth at Arsenal after just four league games in the 2023-24 season.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Injury · out

    Max Dowman withdrew from England's U19 squad due to injury.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Mikel Arteta has signed a new deal with Arsenal until 2030.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Piero Hincapié came on as a substitute for Riccardo Calafiori in the 82nd minute.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Ezri Konsa reacted to Riccardo Calafiori's goal on social media.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Injury · out

    Mikel Merino suffered a stress fracture in his right foot in February.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Kai Havertz missed a good set-piece chance against Nottingham Forest.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Zion Suzuki saved a header from a Bukayo Saka corner against Aston Villa.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Riccardo Calafiori missed a chance from a Martin Odegaard free-kick earlier this season.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Gabriel Magalhães headed a good set-piece chance over the bar against Nottingham Forest.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    David Raya stated that Arsenal have lost one game in 11 this season.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Noni Madueke scored the winning goal for Arsenal against Nottingham Forest after being introduced at half-time.

    Source: The Guardian ↗

Everton FC

  • Transfer · confirmed

    Tyrique George has signed permanently for Everton.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Ainsley Maitland-Niles was a deadline-day signing from Lyon for Everton.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Hayden Hackney is a summer signing from Middlesbrough for Everton.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Jarrad Branthwaite has been called up to the England squad.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Injury · out

    Jordan Pickford has pleaded guilty to driving without due care or attention.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Injury · out

    Martin Sherif has been fined £5,000 by the Football Association for breaching betting rules.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    A move for Monaco forward Folarin Balogun collapsed for Everton.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    David Moyes stated that he was left with only 18 senior outfield players after the summer transfer window.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Christian Norgaard was a surprise starter for Everton.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Duncan Ferguson has been appointed as the new manager of Glentoran.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Everton were deducted points for breaking profit and sustainability rules.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    David Moyes persisted with Merlin Röhl at right-back despite the addition of Maitland-Niles.

    Source: The Guardian ↗

Key factors

  • Arsenal superior attack rating (1.10 vs 0.93) and defence (0.66 vs 1.02)
  • Arsenal 6W-1L vs Everton 2W-4D-1L, home side dominant form
  • Everton only 18 senior outfield players, thin squad under Moyes

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

ARSENAL v EVERTON | Premier League highlights Everton Football Club ·
ARSENAL V EVERTON | David Moyes' Premier League press conference Everton Football Club ·

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