Mercedes and Red Bull bring upgrades to Baku
Mercedes and Red Bull arrive at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix with significant upgrades, aiming to gain an edge on the Baku City Circuit. Mercedes drivers Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell have shown strong form in practice sessions. Russell topped FP2 with a lap time of 1m43.347s, and the Baku circuit is expected to suit Mercedes [1]. Antonelli, despite a suspected hydraulic failure in FP1 that caused him to stop on track [2], recovered to place second in FP2. Both Mercedes drivers are set to take an engine penalty when the team introduces its upgraded power unit [3].
Red Bull has introduced its final major car upgrade package for the 2026 season, focusing on a new floor, sidepods, and mirror assembly geometry [4]. Max Verstappen has been a consistent presence at the top of the practice timesheets, finishing second in FP1 and third in FP2. His teammate, Isack Hadjar, returns to the Red Bull lineup after missing three races due to injury [5]. Hadjar will replace Liam Lawson, who moves back to the Racing Bulls team [6].
Ferrari and McLaren’s performance outlook
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc faces ongoing scrutiny regarding his engine after a crash at Monza, with the engine’s structure still being thoroughly checked [7]. Despite this, Leclerc was briefly the fastest driver in FP2 before Russell set his best time [8]. Ferrari’s SF-26 car has struggled with new regulations in 2026, leading to difficulties for Leclerc [9]. Lewis Hamilton, his teammate, has scored 66 points in the last six rounds, despite brake issues at the Nürburgring [9].
McLaren is introducing a sizeable upgrade package aimed at improving low-speed performance [8]. Lando Norris, who has been testing several development items in the McLaren MCL-HY Le Mans Hypercar [10], finished eighth in FP3. Oscar Piastri, his teammate, finished sixth in FP1 and eighth in FP2. Piastri feels he is in a similar position to George Russell regarding adapting to the current F1 car’s driving style [11].
Other teams and driver movements
Williams has also brought a significant upgrade to Baku, featuring a new floor and tail assembly with different aerodynamic geometries, along with detail changes to flow conditioners and rear suspension [12]. Carlos Sainz, a Williams driver, stated that the upgrade is more in line with what the car should have started the year with, rather than being transformative [12]. Alex Albon described the upgrade as a “big step” and expects a “big swing” due to weight reduction [12].
Aston Martin’s power unit supplier, Honda, has struggled for performance and reliability in the 2026 F1 season [13]. Honda introduced its first engine upgrade of the campaign at the Dutch Grand Prix [14]. Fernando Alonso, an Aston Martin driver, stated his decision to stay in F1 is more about the regulations than the car’s competitiveness [15].
Haas is evaluating potential drivers to partner with Oliver Bearman for the 2027 season, with Ferrari junior Rafael Camara being considered [16]. Esteban Ocon, currently with Haas, has declared himself a free agent for the 2027 season [16]. Alpine F1 Team has appointed Julian Rouse, formerly head of a similar programme for the Alpine F1 team, to run their young driver programme [17].
Podium Forecasts
Predict.game’s models offer varied predictions for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix podium. The baseline model, which considers the last five rounds, forecasts a podium of Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Lando Norris, and Max Verstappen, with Antonelli having a 22.2% win probability. The opus model predicts George Russell, Max Verstappen, and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, highlighting Russell’s FP2 pace and Mercedes’ suitability for Baku. It gives Russell a 22% win probability.
The kimi-cool model also places Antonelli at the top, followed by Russell and Verstappen, with Antonelli’s win probability at 35%. This model emphasizes Mercedes’ dominance and Antonelli’s championship form. The gemini-flash model aligns with opus, forecasting Russell, Verstappen, and Antonelli, noting Russell’s strong FP2 performance and Red Bull’s upgrades. It assigns a 30% win probability to Russell.
Both gpt-striker and deep-thinker models also favor George Russell for the win. gpt-striker predicts Russell, Verstappen, and Lewis Hamilton, giving Russell a 35% win probability due to his practice performance and Mercedes’ circuit suitability. deep-thinker forecasts Russell, Verstappen, and Charles Leclerc, with Russell having a 40% win probability, citing his strong FP2 pace and Mercedes’ upgrades. Across the models, Russell, Antonelli, and Verstappen are consistently identified as top contenders for the podium in Baku.
Sources
- BBC Sport: F1: Chequered Flag bbc.co.uk ↩
- Autosport: F1 Azerbaijan GP: Russell fastest in first practice as Antonelli's Mercedes breaks down autosport.com ↩
- Autosport: Russell set to take F1 engine penalty after Mercedes introduces power unit upgrade motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Red Bull won't deliver any more major F1 car upgrades in 2026 motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Hadjar to partner Verstappen at Red Bull for F1 2027 motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Hadjar set to make Red Bull return at Azerbaijan GP after injury recovery motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Why Leclerc isn't using latest Ferrari ADUO2 engine in the Spanish GP motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: F1 Azerbaijan GP: Russell tops FP2 from Antonelli as Lindblad crashes autosport.com ↩
- Autosport: Why Leclerc didn’t copy Hamilton’s driving style amid F1 2026 struggle motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: F1 champion Norris completes first full test in McLaren’s Le Mans Hypercar motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Russell's theory on his big hope for F1 2027 – and Antonelli's reply motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Will the "big swing" Williams F1 car upgrade be a hit or a miss? motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Honda replaces F1 power unit boss in organisation shuffle motorsport.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Honda changes F1 design boss after slow start to return bbc.co.uk ↩
- Autosport: Alonso on his F1 future: "It is more about the regulations" motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: "Free agent" Ocon talking to other teams with Haas yet to confirm F1 2027 line-up motorsport.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Norris sets up junior team to help drivers to F1 bbc.co.uk ↩