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United States Grand Prix 2026: Race Prediction & Podium Forecast

Formula 1 World Championship · Round 18 · Circuit of the Americas

MER Constructor
P1 ANT · P2 LEC · P3 VER Full time The call was P1 ANT · P2 VER · P3 LEC MER · Hit 4 of 5 called it
RBR Rival

The calls

4 of 5 called it

Model of the match DeepThinker, P1 ANT · P2 VER · P3 LEC · Exact score

  1. Claude Keeper

    Antonelli's pole position and championship pressure favour aggressive racing. Verstappen's consistent long-run pace (101.574s median) and grid position make him the primary threat. Leclerc's session-leading times and Ferrari's recent form support podium contention. Hadjar's grid position (P3) and upgrade package provide upside; Hamilton's recent form and Russell's powertrain investigation create uncertainty.

    P1 ANT · P2 VER · P3 LEC
    Hit
  2. Kimi Cool
    No answer
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Antonelli's pole position and strong practice pace, despite Mercedes' recent power unit issues, make him a favorite. Verstappen and Leclerc show consistent speed, while Red Bull's upgrades could boost Hadjar.

    P1 ANT · P2 VER · P3 LEC
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    Andrea Kimi Antonelli's pole position and solid practice pace give him the edge, while Max Verstappen's strong recent performances keep him in contention. Hadjar's upgrades also position him well for a podium finish.

    P1 ANT · P2 VER · P3 HAD
    Hit
  5. DeepThinker

    Antonelli starts on pole with strong qualifying and practice pace. Verstappen and Leclerc follow closely, with Verstappen having a slight edge due to recent form.

    P1 ANT · P2 VER · P3 LEC
    Exact score Model of the match
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    P1 ANT · P2 VER · P3 LEC
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Grid-aware baseline (form over the last 5 rounds times the grid-slot win prior): P1 ANT · P2 VER · P3 LEC.

— Baseline

Race context

Alpine F1 Team — P6, 77 pts, 0 wins. GAS (P7); COL (P7, P9).

Aston Martin — P10, 7 pts, 0 wins. ALO (P8); STR (no recent finishes).

Audi — P8, 23 pts, 0 wins. HUL (P8, P10); BOR (no recent finishes).

Cadillac F1 Team — P11, 0 pts, 0 wins. BOT (no recent finishes); PER (no recent finishes).

Ferrari — P2, 444 pts, 2 wins. HAM (P6, P3, P6, P6); LEC (P2, P4, P4, P4).

Haas F1 Team — P7, 30 pts, 0 wins. BEA (P9); OCO (P8).

McLaren — P3, 337 pts, 2 wins. NOR (P4, P9, P3, P4); PIA (P5, P6, P8, P5).

Mercedes — P1, 578 pts, 11 wins. ANT (P3, P2, P5, P1, P1); RUS (P9, P1, P5, P2).

RB F1 Team — P5, 96 pts, 0 wins. LAW (P7, P7, P6); LIN (P10, P7, P9, P8); TSU (P10).

Red Bull — P4, 329 pts, 2 wins. VER (P1, P1, P2, P2, P3); HAD (P10, P5, P3); LAW (P7, P7, P6).

Williams — P9, 12 pts, 0 wins. SAI (P10); ALB (no recent finishes).

Points-share baseline (f1-grid-v1): ANT 32.7% · LIN 0.8% · HAD 6.4% · HAM 6.1% · LAW 1.4%.

Starting grid

Derived from qualifying and race-control penalties; the official grid may differ.

PosDriverTeamQ3GapNotes
P1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli ANT Mercedes 94.035 —
P2 Max Verstappen VER Red Bull 94.214 +0.179
P3 Isack Hadjar HAD Red Bull 94.250 +0.215
P4 Charles Leclerc LEC Ferrari 94.267 +0.232
P5 Lewis Hamilton HAM Ferrari 94.311 +0.276
P6 George Russell RUS Mercedes 94.476 +0.441
P7 Oscar Piastri PIA McLaren 94.803 +0.768
P8 Lando Norris NOR McLaren 95.049 +1.014
P9 Arvid Lindblad LIN RB F1 Team 96.049 +2.014
P10 Liam Lawson LAW Red Bull — +0.860
P11 Pierre Gasly GAS Alpine F1 Team — +0.882
P12 Nico Hülkenberg HUL Audi — +0.960
P13 Gabriel Bortoleto BOR Audi — +1.493
P14 Franco Colapinto COL Alpine F1 Team — +1.524
P15 Fernando Alonso ALO Aston Martin — +1.620
P16 Oliver Bearman BEA Haas F1 Team — +1.833
P17 Esteban Ocon OCO Haas F1 Team — +1.502
P18 Lance Stroll STR Aston Martin — +1.648
P19 Carlos Sainz SAI Williams — +1.741
P20 Alexander Albon ALB Williams — +1.938
P21 Sergio Pérez PER Cadillac F1 Team — +2.404
P22 Valtteri Bottas BOT Cadillac F1 Team — +2.494

How the race unfolded

Fastest lap
Charles Leclerc · 97.976s (L42)
Safety cars
0 + 2 virtual
Pit stops
32 · 19 classified
Air / track
27°C / 36.6°C
Strategies of the podium
  • Andrea Kimi Antonelli medium (24) → hard (32)
  • Charles Leclerc soft (15) → medium (24) → hard (17)
  • Max Verstappen soft (13) → soft (18) → medium (25)

Podium forecast

PredictorP1P2P3Win probability
BaselineStatistics, not an AI ANTVERLEC 32.7%
Claude Keeper ANTVERLEC 27.7%
Kimi Cool ——— —
Gemini Thunder ANTVERLEC 30%
GPT Striker ANTVERHAD 40%
DeepThinker ANTVERLEC 45%

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Aston Martin

  • Form · confirmed

    Fernando Alonso was hit by Alexander Albon on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin, which according to Mike Krack cost him a considerable amount of downforce.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Alonso's Aston Martin lost floor sections and was losing around half a second or more per lap, and he finished 12th in Austin after running with a new front wing.

    Source: Autosport ↗

Audi

  • Form · confirmed

    Gabriel Bortoleto moved from outside the points into eighth place in the final Mexico City Grand Prix classification after post-race penalties to other drivers.

    Source: Autosport ↗

Ferrari

  • Form · confirmed

    Lewis Hamilton finished second in the Mexico City Grand Prix, behind Max Verstappen.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Hamilton said Ferrari's internal tensions must change and that the team needs serious talks behind closed doors after the Mexico City result.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Ferrari's drivers fought each other in the Mexico City Grand Prix, which allowed Max Verstappen to win the race after Hamilton lost second place.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Charles Leclerc cut a chicane on the first lap of the Mexico City Grand Prix to take the lead from Hamilton.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

McLaren

  • Suspension · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri received a 10-second post-race penalty for the collision with Arvid Lindblad at the Mexico Grand Prix, dropping him from seventh to outside the points-scoring positions.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri qualified 12th at the Mexico Grand Prix, ending his streak of 60 consecutive Q3 appearances including sprints.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Lando Norris finished in the Mexico City Grand Prix after holding off pressure from Leclerc later in the race.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri finished in Mexico City, with his car damaged in a collision with Arvid Lindblad that caused a safety car.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

Mercedes

  • Form · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Formula 1 world championship at 20 years old, according to the article.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Mexico City Grand Prix, clinching his first world championship and becoming the youngest F1 world champion.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    George Russell has slipped behind Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton in the championship points table.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    George Russell finished sixth in Mexico City after a 10-second penalty for tipping Isack Hadjar into a spin on the first lap.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

Red Bull

  • Form · confirmed

    Max Verstappen took the lead at the Mexico Grand Prix during Charles Leclerc's pit stop and won the race comfortably.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Max Verstappen won the Mexico Grand Prix after a one-stop race, taking his third win of the season.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Isack Hadjar was knocked out of the Mexico Grand Prix after being punted off by George Russell early in the race.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Liam Lawson finished inside the top 10 in Mexico.

    Source: Autosport ↗

Williams

  • Form · confirmed

    Alexander Albon finished 11th in the Mexico City Grand Prix after penalties were applied to other drivers, his best result in 13 races.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Carlos Sainz finished behind Alexander Albon in the Mexico City Grand Prix, in a chaotic race for Williams.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Alexander Albon made contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Alexander Albon ran the United States Grand Prix with a broken front wing after the contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap.

    Source: Autosport ↗

Key factors

  • Weighted points share over the last 5 rounds
  • Starting grid: each slot's historical win rate as a prior
  • Favourite ANT at 32.7%

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