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Tactics & Lineups 1. FC Köln · Friday, 23 October 2026 at 19:25 CEST

1. FC Köln Hosts Schalke 04 Amidst Managerial Change and Injury Woes

Köln, under new coach Alexander Blessin, faces Schalke 04 at RheinEnergieSTADION. Predictions favor a home win.

predict.game Sources: 11 ↓

In short

  • 1. FC Köln recently appointed Alexander Blessin as their new coach, bringing a fresh dynamic to the team.
  • Köln is dealing with significant injuries to key attacking players Ragnar Ache and Thijs Dallinga.
  • Schalke 04 has seen several new arrivals this summer, including Maximilian Wöber, Robin Gosens, and Hee Chan Hwang.

Match Preview

  1. FC Köln will host FC Schalke 04 at the RheinEnergieSTADION in a Bundesliga encounter that sees the home side under new management. René Wagner has been replaced by Alexander Blessin as the head coach of 1. FC Köln, a change that comes after a mixed start to the season. Blessin’s tenure has already seen a significant moment, with Said El Mala scoring a crucial goal to make the score 2-1 in a recent victory for Köln [1]. This win against Borussia Mönchengladbach will undoubtedly provide a boost in confidence for the team as they prepare to face Schalke.

However, Köln enters this match with some notable injury concerns. Key attacking players Ragnar Ache and Thijs Dallinga are both confirmed to be out, according to [2]. Despite these setbacks, players like Jahmai Simpson-Pusey have been consistent starters, featuring in all three league games for Köln [3]. Other players who have recently received starting nods include Marius Bülter, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, Sebastian Sebulonsen, and Borna Sosa [4]. The club also recently released a special jersey to honor composer Willi Ostermann [5].

FC Schalke 04, managed by Miron Muslic, has also seen some squad changes, with Maximilian Wöber, Robin Gosens, and Hee Chan Hwang arriving this summer [6]. Goalkeeper Loris Karius joined in January 2025 [7], and the club recently extended the contract of Luca Vozar [8]. In terms of recent lineups, Satoshi Tanaka made his Bundesliga debut for Schalke [9], while Junior Adamu and Kenan Karaman have also started [10]. Maximilian Wöber and Adil Aouchiche were among the goalscorers in a 3-1 away win against Union Berlin [10]. However, Dejan Ljubičić and Junior Adamu did not start in their recent draw against SV 07 Elversberg [11].

Model Predictions

All prediction models are in agreement, forecasting a home win for 1. FC Köln. The baseline Poisson model predicts a 1-0 home win with a 41.5% probability for a home victory, 26.4% for a draw, and 32.0% for an away win. This model also suggests expected goals of 1.38 for Köln and 1.18 for Schalke.

The Opus model is even more confident in a Köln victory, predicting a 2-1 home win with a 52.0% probability. It highlights Köln’s superior defensive and attacking metrics, coupled with their home advantage and recent home win momentum, as factors outweighing Schalke’s defensive solidity. The model also notes Schalke’s weak attack rating of 0.70, which limits their threat away from home.

Kimi-cool and Deep-thinker both align on a 1-0 home win for Köln, with probabilities of 45.0% for a home victory. Kimi-cool attributes this to Köln’s new manager bounce under Blessin, their superior attack rating, and Schalke’s struggles away from home, having secured only one win in their last six away matches. Deep-thinker similarly points to Köln’s attack rating and home advantage as key factors, supported by Schalke’s poor form and low scoring record.

Gemini-flash also predicts a 2-1 home win for Köln, with a 48.0% probability. It emphasizes Köln’s stronger attack under Blessin, despite the injuries to Ache and Dallinga. While acknowledging Schalke’s better defense, Gemini-flash believes Köln’s home advantage and recent win will lead to a narrow victory. GPT-striker rounds out the predictions with a 1-0 home win, giving Köln a 45.0% chance of victory, citing their home advantage and better recent form compared to an offensively struggling Schalke.

Club Data

  1. FC Köln currently sits in 12th position in the Bundesliga table with 7 points from 6 games. Their form over the last five matches is LWLDL, indicating an inconsistent run. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 11. Their last five results include a 0-1 away loss to Eintracht Frankfurt, a 2-1 home win against Borussia Mönchengladbach, a 1-2 away loss to Hamburger SV, a 1-1 home draw with SV Werder Bremen, and a 1-4 away loss to VfB Stuttgart.

FC Schalke 04 is positioned 15th in the league, having accumulated 5 points from 6 matches. Their recent form is LLDWD, suggesting a slight dip compared to Köln. Schalke has scored 4 goals and conceded 7. Their last five results show a 0-1 home loss to 1. FSV Mainz 05, a 1-2 away loss to SC Freiburg, a 0-0 home draw with SV 07 Elversberg, a 3-1 away win against 1. FC Union Berlin, and a 0-0 home draw with FC Bayern München.

What it means

  1. FC Köln’s current standing of 12th place, with 7 points, reflects a team that is yet to find consistent form this season. Their LWLDL form over the last five matches indicates a struggle for momentum, though the recent home win against Borussia Mönchengladbach under new coach Alexander Blessin offers a glimmer of hope. The team’s goal difference of -3 (8 goals for, 11 against) suggests a need for improvement at both ends of the pitch. The upcoming fixture against Schalke 04, a team lower in the table, presents an opportunity for Köln to consolidate their recent positive result and climb further up the standings.

FC Schalke 04, in 15th place with 5 points, is in a more precarious position, hovering near the relegation zone. Their LLDWD form highlights their difficulties, particularly their struggles to score goals, with only 4 goals in 6 matches. This offensive weakness, combined with a goal difference of -3 (4 goals for, 7 against), will be a concern for coach Miron Muslic. The away fixture against Köln is a challenging one, and Schalke will need to improve their attacking output significantly to secure a positive result and move away from the bottom of the table.

Sources

  1. Kicker: El Mala über Befreiungsschlag und was ihm am Gladbacher Jubel missfallen hat kicker.de ↩
  2. The Guardian: Blessin in disguise? Gladbach must scale mountain after derby defeat by Köln theguardian.com ↩
  3. Kicker: Simpson-Pusey erklärt seine "No-Brainer-Entscheidung" für Köln kicker.de ↩
  4. Bundesliga.com: Saïd El Mala leads Cologne to Rhine derby delight against Borussia Mönchengladbach bundesliga.com ↩
  5. Kicker: Köln präsentiert Sondertrikot zu Ehren von Komponist Ostermann kicker.de ↩
  6. Bundesliga.com: Promoted Schalke and Elversberg bid to build on strong Bundesliga starts bundesliga.com ↩
  7. Bundesliga.com: Loris Karius silencing doubters with Schalke bundesliga.com ↩
  8. Kicker: Schalke verlängert mit Vozar: "Wunderschönes Beispiel" kicker.de ↩
  9. Bundesliga.com: Schalke hold defending champions Bayern Munich to goalless draw bundesliga.com ↩
  10. Bundesliga.com: Schalke off the mark with hard-fought win against Union Berlin bundesliga.com ↩
  11. Bundesliga.com: Schalke and Elversberg share spoils in goalless draw bundesliga.com ↩

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