Match Overview
Deportivo Alavés will host Club Atlético de Madrid at the Estadio de Mendizorroza in what promises to be a challenging fixture for the home side. Alavés, currently sitting 6th in the league with 11 points from 7 games, have had a mixed run of form recently, recording two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five outings. Their last match was a goalless draw against Athletic Club [1]. Coach Quique Sánchez Flores, who took over in March [2], will be without several key players due to injury. Facundo Garcés and Mikel Rodríguez are both out with anterior cruciate ligament tears [3], while Ville Koski, who has started all league matches this season, has returned from international duty with an injury [4]. Despite these setbacks, Antonio Sivera is expected to continue as the starting goalkeeper [1].
Atlético Madrid, under the guidance of Diego Simeone [5], arrive in excellent form, occupying 2nd place in La Liga with 16 points. They have won four of their last five league matches, including an impressive 2-1 victory over Real Madrid [6]. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 16 goals in 7 games. Jonathan David recently joined Atlético Madrid on loan from Juventus with an option to buy [7], further strengthening their squad. However, they too have injury concerns, with Alexander Sørloth yet to debut this season due to injuries, and Pablo Barrios sidelined with a muscle injury [8]. Alejandro Grimaldo is continuing his recovery at the club [9].
Team Form and Key Players
Deportivo Alavés’ recent form has been inconsistent, with their last five league matches yielding two wins, two losses, and one draw. Their home record includes a 1-0 loss to Valencia and a 5-2 victory over CA Osasuna. Key players for Alavés include Nahuel Tenaglia and Abde Rebbach, both of whom have started all league matches this season [10]. Pablo Ibáñez and Antonio Blanco started on the bench in their last match against Athletic Club [11], suggesting potential rotation or tactical adjustments. The absence of Ville Koski, a consistent starter, will be a significant blow to their defensive stability. Coach Quique Sánchez Flores is also recovering from knee surgery, though he is doing so favorably [12].
Atlético Madrid’s form has been impressive, with four wins and one loss in their last five league games. Their away form includes a 3-0 victory over Real Sociedad and a 3-1 win against Sevilla. Marcos Llorente started in midfield in a recent match with instructions to support attacks on the right flank [13], indicating a dynamic approach. Julián Álvarez replaced Jonathan David in a previous game [6], showcasing the depth in their attacking options. Koke was introduced at the start of the second half in the same match [6], highlighting his role as an impact player. The team’s strong attacking and defensive ratings (1.2702 attack, 0.9784 defence) further underscore their quality.
Predictions and What it Means
The majority of prediction models favor an away win for Atlético Madrid. The opus model predicts a 0-2 away win, citing Atlético’s elite form, superior ratings, and recent dominant performances, while noting Alavés’ defensive injuries. kimi-cool and gemini-flash both forecast a 0-1 away win, emphasizing Atlético’s superior attack and form over Alavés’ home advantage and injury woes. gpt-striker and deep-thinker also predict a 1-2 away win, highlighting Atlético’s excellent form and Alavés’ struggles with injuries. The baseline model, however, suggests a 2-1 home win with a 43.4% probability for the home side, indicating a potential for an upset based on historical data.
For Deportivo Alavés, currently 6th with 11 points, a win would be crucial to solidify their position in the top half of the table and potentially challenge for European spots. A loss would see them drop points against a top contender and could allow other teams to overtake them. Their form of “DLLWW” suggests a need for greater consistency. For Club Atlético de Madrid, sitting 2nd with 16 points, a victory is essential to maintain pressure on the league leaders and extend their impressive run. Their “WWWLW” form indicates strong momentum. The next fixture for Alavés is a challenging one, and overcoming Atlético Madrid would be a significant statement of intent, despite their injury concerns. For Atlético, continuing their winning ways against a mid-table side is expected and crucial for their title aspirations.
Sources
- Marca: Sivera para su primer penalti en Primera: "Es un dato un poco ridículo..." marca.com ↩
- Marca: El mejor Alavés de la historia marca.com ↩
- Marca: Quique sitúa al Alavés en otra dimensión marca.com ↩
- Marca: Ville Koski se lesiona con Finlandia y vuelve a Vitoria marca.com ↩
- Marca: Quique: "En el momento en el que bajemos el nivel, nos vamos a alejar de una temporada feliz" marca.com ↩
- The Guardian: Jonathan David earns Atlético precious win over 10-man Real Madrid in fractious derby theguardian.com ↩
- Football Italia: Video: David scored 2 goals in just 3 games for Atletico Madrid since Juventus loan football-italia.net ↩
- Marca: Este Atlético ya va lanzado a por todo marca.com ↩
- Marca: Grimaldo vuelve al Atlético... pensando en el Alavés marca.com ↩
- Marca: Ville Koski se consolida como hombre fuerte de Quique marca.com ↩
- Marca: Guevara combate la falta de minutos marca.com ↩
- Marca: Quique Sánchez Flores, operado de una lesión de rodilla marca.com ↩
- Marca: Simeone lo volvió a hacer: así fue su plan medido que desarboló a Mourinho marca.com ↩
