Bologna won 2-0 at Cagliari on 24 October 2026, and not one forecaster on predict.game saw it coming. The five models and the baseline all predicted a home win, so the outcome was wrong across the board and no one got the exact score. The input carries no goalscorers or match details, so this recap deals with what was forecast and what it cost.
The result and the grades
The predictions were close to uniform. Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all went for 2-1 to Cagliari, while Gemini Thunder and the baseline chose 1-0. The Brier scores show how much conviction each carried into the miss. Lower is better, and the baseline came out best at 0.6645, followed by Gemini Thunder at 0.74 and Kimi Cool at 0.7448. DeepThinker scored 0.855 and opus 0.9056. GPT Striker was the most exposed at 1.005, which means it put the most probability behind the outcome that did not happen.
The value picks were just as one-sided. Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker each flagged a Cagliari win in the head-to-head market at odds of 3.1. All five missed, and each lost a unit of stake for a profit and loss of -1.0. The baseline made no value pick, so it avoided that loss. Having no pick was the only thing that separated it from the rest on the money side.
Why the models leaned home
The pre-match picture explains the lean. Cagliari arrived seventh with 13 points from seven games, on a form line of LDWWW that included wins at Udinese and Atalanta and a 1-0 home win over Lecce. Bologna were 15th with five points from seven and a record of one win, two draws and four defeats. On the surface the home side looked clearly stronger.
Cagliari also had an in-form attacker. [1] reported that Daniel Maldini had scored in his fourth consecutive Serie A game, and that Paul Mendy had set up his goal against Juventus. That 1-1 draw on 11 October was the last home match before this one.
The underlying numbers were closer than the table suggested. The site’s team ratings gave Cagliari an attack figure of 0.8188 and a defence figure of 0.9936, against 0.8978 and 1.047 for Bologna. The head-to-head record was also uneasy for the hosts. Bologna won 2-0 in this fixture a year earlier, and the most recent meeting, in May 2026, finished 0-0.
Bologna’s side of the story
Bologna came in with reasons for doubt. [2] confirmed that Raffaele Palladino had been appointed as their new coach, and his first home game ended in a 3-1 defeat to Inter, with Tommaso Pobega scoring Bologna’s opener according to [3]. Before that, a [4] had shown they could take points on the road, and Matteo Darmian started in it after joining the squad.
The injury list was long. A report dated 20 October on [5] listed Riccardo Orsolini with a muscular injury and Roberto Piccoli out for at least three weeks with a thigh lesion. Emil Holm was out for four to six months after hamstring surgery. Lewis Ferguson, meanwhile, had played every minute and captained the side in every league game, according to [6].
None of that pointed to a clean 2-0 away win, which is why the result sits so far from the forecasts.
What it means
For Cagliari, the defeat follows a 4-0 loss at Monza on 19 October, so they have now lost two league games in a row without scoring. They remain ninth with 13 points from eight games, a record of four wins, one draw and three defeats, and a goal difference of minus three (six scored, nine conceded). Their form line has gone from LDWWW to a run of D, L, L in the last three. The next fixture is Roma away on 27 October, only three days later, which asks whether they can score again after two blanks.
For Bologna, the win lifts them to 13th with eight points from eight games (two wins, two draws, four defeats; eight scored, ten conceded). It breaks a pattern of one win in their first seven. It also gives Palladino a result to take into Milan away on 28 October, a far tougher test than this one. Having beaten a side that looked stronger on paper, the question is whether that carries over, or whether the injury list starts to bite.
The site’s forecasts for both of those fixtures lock 24 hours before kick-off. After a round in which every model backed the wrong side, the grades will show whether the models adjust.
Sources
- The Guardian: Daniel Maldini finds his feet at Cagliari after years in family’s Serie A shadow theguardian.com ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A line-ups: Bologna vs. Inter football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Palladino: ‘Bologna regret against Inter, can’t leave game in the balance’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Lecce 1-2 Bologna: First victory for Palladino football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Bologna confirm Piccoli out for at least three weeks with fresh injury football-italia.net ↩
- Sky Sports: Ferguson: Rangers dream always in back of my mind skysports.com ↩
