Match Overview
Deportivo Alavés will host Valencia CF at Estadio de Mendizorroza in what appears to be a clash of contrasting fortunes. Alavés currently sit in fourth place in the league standings with 10 points from five games, showcasing a strong start to their campaign. Their home form has been particularly impressive, securing three wins and one draw from their five fixtures. In contrast, Valencia CF find themselves rooted at the bottom of the table in 20th position, having accumulated just one point from their opening five matches. The visitors have suffered four losses and managed a single draw, conceding 10 goals while scoring only one in their first four games of the season [1]. This stark difference in performance sets the stage for a challenging encounter for Valencia, who are desperate to turn their season around. The home side will be looking to capitalize on their momentum and Valencia’s struggles to secure another crucial three points.
Team News and Form
Deportivo Alavés enters this fixture with a relatively stable squad, though they have some injury concerns. Toni Martínez was out due to a soleus injury [2], while Mikel Rodríguez suffered a torn cruciate ligament and Facundo Garcés was serving a FIFA suspension [3]. Despite these setbacks, the team has prioritized keeping key players like Blanco, Toni Martínez, Boyé, and Sivera to maintain squad stability [4]. Lucas Boyé has been in sensational form, scoring a hat-trick in one match and accumulating four goals in his last three appearances for Alavés [5]. Aitor Mañas is also expected to be an important contributor to Alavés’ goal tally [6]. Their recent form includes three wins, one draw, and one loss, with their latest result being a 2-1 defeat to Real Racing Club de Santander, despite having 16 shots [7]. Quique Sánchez Flores, who took over as head coach in March, has clearly had a positive impact on the team’s performance [4].
Valencia CF, on the other hand, is facing a significant crisis. The team has been severely hit by injuries, with Guido Rodríguez still recovering, Foulquier suffering a training injury, and Luis Rioja unable to train with the group [8]. Additionally, Copete and Justin de Haas are recovering from injuries, and Mouctar Diakhaby has a history of recurrent muscular problems [9]. Their coach, Carlos Corberán, has been replaced by the B team manager on an interim basis [1], and Braulio Vázquez has been appointed as the new sporting director [10]. Valencia’s recent form is dire, with four losses and one draw in their last five matches, including a 1-0 defeat to Sevilla and a heavy 5-0 loss to FC Barcelona. Pepelu has expressed positivity about the team’s ability to overcome challenges, but the results speak for themselves [11].
Head-to-Head and Predictions
The recent head-to-head record between these two teams shows a mixed bag of results. In their last two encounters, Deportivo Alavés secured a 3-2 victory at home against Valencia CF in March 2026, while the previous match in October 2025 ended in a 0-0 draw at Alavés’ home ground. This indicates that Alavés has had the upper hand in their most recent fixture. Given Valencia’s current struggles, particularly their defensive vulnerabilities and lack of goals, the predictions heavily favor a home win for Deportivo Alavés. The baseline model predicts a 2-1 home win, with a 63.0% probability for Alavés. Other models like Opus and gpt-striker are even more confident, forecasting 2-0 home wins with probabilities of 72.0% and 65.0% respectively. Kimi-cool and gemini-flash also predict home wins, with probabilities of 52.0% and 55.0% respectively, both suggesting a 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline. Deep-thinker aligns with a 2-1 home win, citing Alavés’ strong home performance and Valencia’s weak away record. The consensus points towards Alavés capitalizing on their strong form and home advantage against a beleaguered Valencia side.
What it means
Deportivo Alavés’ strong start to the season sees them in 4th position with 10 points from 5 games, boasting a form of LWWDW. They have scored 11 goals and conceded only 5, indicating a balanced and effective team. A win here would solidify their position in the top tier of the league, potentially pushing them higher depending on other results. Their next fixture is away against Real Sociedad, which will be another challenging test. For Valencia CF, the situation is dire. They are currently 20th in the league with just 1 point from 5 games, reflecting a form of LLLLD. They have scored a mere 1 goal while conceding 10, highlighting significant issues in both attack and defense. A loss in this match would further entrench them at the bottom of the table, increasing pressure on the interim management and the newly appointed sporting director. Their next fixture is at home against Real Madrid, a match that offers little respite given their current form. This match against Alavés is crucial for Valencia to show any signs of recovery, but the numbers suggest a tough road ahead.
Sources
- The Guardian: ‘Very weak. Very bad’: how Rodri’s verdict exposed woeful Valencia’s crisis | Sid Lowe theguardian.com ↩
- Marca: Quique exprime el olfato de sus delanteros marca.com ↩
- Marca: Drama en el Alavés: Garcés también tiene roto el ligamento cruzado marca.com ↩
- Marca: El mejor Alavés de la historia marca.com ↩
- Marca: Mbappé sí que va a tener competencia marca.com ↩
- Marca: Quique: “Estamos en la dinámica que merece el equipo y la afición” marca.com ↩
- Marca: El Alavés baja a la tierra en Santander marca.com ↩
- Marca: Corberán, sobre el mercado del Valencia: “No tiene sentido centrarme en lo que podría o debería haberse hecho” marca.com ↩
- Marca: Diakhaby sufre una lesión en el aductor izquierdo y apunta a más de un mes de baja marca.com ↩
- Marca: Óscar Sánchez, técnico interino del Valencia: "El equipo hace muchas cosas bien, pero si sumas un punto de quince es por algo" marca.com ↩
- Marca: Pepelu, tras otro fiasco del Valencia: "La gente se cansa cuando ve la realidad, está cansada de explicaciones" marca.com ↩
