Two mid-table sides meet in round nine
Newcastle United host Everton at St. James’ Park on Monday 2 November, kicking off at 20:00 UTC. The table gives little reason to pick a clear favourite. Newcastle sit 12th with 11 points from eight games (three wins, two draws, three defeats), and their goal difference is 12 scored against 14 conceded. Everton are 14th on 10 points, with two wins, four draws and two defeats, and a goal difference of 8 scored against 9 conceded.
The head-to-head record is balanced. Newcastle won 4-1 away at Everton on 29 November 2025, and Everton won 3-2 at St. James’ Park on 28 February 2026. Each side has taken one of the two meetings, so history gives neither a clear edge.
Matthias Jaissle is in charge of Newcastle and David Moyes of Everton. The home side’s attack rating in the site’s model is 1.0152, against 0.8928 for Everton. That gap is the main statistical reason the forecasts lean towards the hosts, and it is a modest one.
Newcastle: new faces, uneven results
Newcastle’s recent results swing both ways. They beat Crystal Palace 2-0 away on 25 October, then lost 1-0 at home to Aston Villa on 17 October and 4-1 away at Coventry City on 12 October. Before that came a 2-1 home win over Hull City on 19 September and a 4-1 defeat at Leeds United on 14 September. Their form string reads WLLWL, and the 14 goals conceded in eight games is the figure Jaissle will most want to fix.
The squad has been reshaped this season. [1] reported the signing of 18-year-old Sean Steur for £20m, while [2] listed Amar Dedić and Nico Gonzalez among the summer arrivals. Matias Fernandez-Pardo was also signed, according to [3].
The Hull match report in [4] gives some tactical detail. Harvey Barnes provided assists for Newcastle’s goals, Lewis Miley was moved from right-back into midfield, and Steur was substituted, with Fabian Schär coming on in his place. Those notes suggest a side still adjusting its balance, but one with creative options in wide areas.
Everton: a thin squad searching for goals
Everton arrive on a poor run. They lost 2-0 at Arsenal on 24 October and 2-0 at home to Chelsea on 17 October, scoring in neither game. Before that they drew 2-2 at Hull City, beat Ipswich Town 1-0 and drew 0-0 at Tottenham Hotspur. Their form reads LLDWD. They have lost only twice in eight games, but the two defeats are the most recent results.
Squad depth is a theme. [5] reports that Moyes said he was left with only 18 senior outfield players after the summer window. The club did add players: [6] confirmed Tyrique George’s permanent signing, and a [7] confirmed Ainsley Maitland-Niles as a deadline-day arrival from Lyon. [8] noted that Hayden Hackney made a telling impact off the bench against Manchester United, and that Moyes kept Merlin Röhl at right-back despite signing Maitland-Niles.
Moyes has also shown he will change his midfield. [9] described Christian Norgaard as a surprise starter in the Chelsea game. Jarrad Branthwaite has been called up to the England squad, [10] reported, a sign of how his form is regarded.
What the models say
The Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, expects 1.60 goals for Newcastle and 1.21 for Everton. It puts the outcome probabilities at 46.4% for a home win, 24.7% for a draw and 28.9% for an away win. It gives 56.1% for both teams scoring and 53.4% for more than 2.5 goals. Its single most likely scoreline is 1-1, although the most likely home-win score is 1-0.
All five AI models pick Newcastle to win 2-1. Their home-win probabilities range from 42% (Kimi Cool) to 48% (Claude Keeper), and their draw estimates run from 22% to 30%. Their reasoning is similar: home advantage, Newcastle’s stronger attack rating, and Everton’s recent defeats. Gemini Thunder points out that Everton have lost their last two. DeepThinker adds that Everton’s defence could keep the match close.
The case for caution is clear in the numbers. Newcastle have lost three of their last five, and a 4-1 defeat at Coventry and another at Leeds show how open they can be. Everton have drawn four of eight, and a 2-2 draw at Hull shows they can score. The baseline’s own 1-1 mode and the 56.1% chance of both teams scoring suggest a closer game than a 2-1 consensus implies. Newcastle are the logical pick, but not a comfortable one.
Sources
- The Guardian: How the search for younger players is driving the Premier League’s internal transfer market theguardian.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Newcastle were 'preparing for months' for Howe departure bbc.co.uk ↩
- Sky Sports: Newcastle chief: Summer was 'not chaotic' with Howe exit prepared for skysports.com ↩
- The Guardian: Newcastle back to winning ways as Willock and Hall end Hull’s unbeaten start theguardian.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Everton up for sale again - so what next as owners TFG look for a way out? bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Everton FC bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: After transfer worries, Everton have an unlikely new hero bbc.co.uk ↩
- The Guardian: Maitland-Niles stunner rescues late point for Everton against Manchester United theguardian.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Neto stars but who was subdued? - player ratings for Everton v Chelsea bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Everton FC bbc.co.uk ↩
