Match Overview
VfB Stuttgart will host Borussia Dortmund at the Mercedes-Benz Arena in what promises to be an intriguing Bundesliga encounter. Dortmund arrive in Stuttgart with a perfect record, having won all three of their opening league fixtures. Their recent form includes a 3-0 home victory over SC Paderborn 07, a 3-2 away win against TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, and a 2-0 home triumph over Hamburger SV [1]. This strong start sees them sitting second in the league table with nine points, having scored eight goals and conceded only two. Coach Niko Kovać, who recently took charge of Borussia Dortmund [2], will be keen to maintain this momentum. Stuttgart, under Sebastian Hoeneß, have had a more inconsistent start, recording one win and two losses. Their recent results include a 2-1 away loss to TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and a convincing 4-1 home win against 1. FC Köln [3]. They currently sit 14th in the standings with three points, having scored six goals and conceded eight.
Team News and Form
Borussia Dortmund will be without Filippo Mané, who was forced off injured in a previous match [4] and later confirmed to be injured [5]. Giannis Konstantelias is also a long-term absentee after undergoing successful surgery for an ACL injury [6]. However, Felix Nmecha returned to the squad and scored in their last outing [1], even scoring an overhead kick [7]. Marcel Sabitzer has also been in the starting XI and provided an assist recently [8]. Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has been nominated for the 2026 Yashin Trophy [9]. For VfB Stuttgart, Tiago Tomás is out with an injury [3], and Angelo Stiller suffered a bruise and was not nominated for the national team [10]. Ermedin Demirovic has been in good scoring form, with four goals in five appearances across all competitions [11]. Koki Machida has returned from a cruciate ligament tear [12], and Dženan Pejčinović has arrived from Wolfsburg [11].
Predictions and Head-to-Head
The models are somewhat divided on the outcome of this match, though a slight favouritism towards Borussia Dortmund is evident. The baseline model predicts a 1-2 away win for Dortmund, with a 44.9% chance of an away victory, 21.7% for a draw, and 33.4% for a home win. This is supported by other models like gemini-flash, gpt-striker, and deep-thinker, all forecasting a 1-2 away win for Dortmund, citing their excellent form, strong defense, and Stuttgart’s inconsistent start and injury concerns. However, opus and kimi-cool both predict a 2-1 home win for VfB Stuttgart. These models highlight Stuttgart’s home advantage, their attacking prowess at home (4-1 vs Köln), and Demirovic’s current form as key factors that could outweigh Dortmund’s perfect start. The head-to-head record between these two teams in recent times shows a mixed bag. In their last two encounters, Borussia Dortmund secured a 0-2 away win in April 2026, while the match in November 2025 ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw at Dortmund’s home ground. This suggests that while Dortmund have had recent success, Stuttgart are capable of putting up a strong fight, especially at home.
Sources
- Bundesliga.com: Felix Nmecha stunner adds gloss to Borussia Dortmund win over Paderborn bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Kovac verteidigt Wagner: "Wenn das nicht mehr erlaubt ist, haben wir ein Problem" kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bilal El Khannouss inspires VfB Stuttgart to big win over Cologne bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Serhou Guirassy leads stunning Borussia Dortmund comeback to sink Hoffenheim bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Serhou Guirassy brace helps sink Villarreal in UEFA Champions League opener bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Borussia Dortmund's Giannis Konstantelias undergoes successful ACL operation bundesliga.com ↩
- Sky Sports: 'Extraordinary!' | Nmecha scores outrageous overhead kick for Dortmund skysports.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: I saw it in my mind: Borussia Dortmund's Felix Nmecha on his outrageous overhead kick against Paderborn bundesliga.com ↩
- Football Italia: Donnarumma left off shortlist for 2026 Ballon d’Or goalkeeping award football-italia.net ↩
- Kicker: Nur eine Prellung: VfB gibt bei Stiller Entwarnung kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Can VfB Stuttgart's attack rival Borussia Dortmund's? bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Machida drängt nun auch in die Startelf kicker.de ↩
