Tottenham Hotspur host Crystal Palace at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on 31 October (17:30 UTC) in round nine of the Premier League. It is a meeting of two clubs in the lower half of the table, but their recent trajectories point in different directions.
Form and the table
Tottenham sit 14th with 9 points from 8 games (two wins, three draws, three defeats). Their goal record of 8 scored and 10 conceded is modest, but the recent run is encouraging. Roberto De Zerbi’s side won 2-0 away at Chelsea on 24 October and 3-1 at home to Coventry City five days earlier. Before that came a 1-1 draw at Manchester United, a 2-3 home defeat to Aston Villa and a goalless draw with Everton. The league form line reads WWDLD.
Crystal Palace are 17th with 7 points from 8, having won two, drawn one and lost five. The 9 goals scored and 19 conceded give them a goal difference of minus 10. Their last two games were a 0-5 defeat at Brighton & Hove Albion and a 0-2 home loss to Newcastle United, so they arrive scoreless for 180 minutes. The only recent bright spot was a 3-1 home win over Nottingham Forest on 11 October. Before that they drew 0-0 at Leeds United and lost 2-3 at home to Ipswich Town. Pierre Sage’s team have not kept a clean sheet in the run listed here apart from that goalless draw at Leeds.
The head-to-head record offers little separation. Palace won 3-1 at Tottenham on 5 March 2026, while Spurs won 1-0 at Selhurst Park on 28 December 2025.
Team news and recent arrivals
Tottenham’s squad has been reshaped. [1] reports that Mykhailo Mudryk, Tosin Adarabioyo and Sávio all joined in the last week of the transfer window. Mudryk was brought off the bench at Nottingham Forest for his first competitive minutes in 645 days after a doping suspension, according to [2]. Sávio started for the club, as [3] noted.
There are absences. [4] listed Xavi Simons as out with a knee problem until 1 January. [5] reported Rodrigo Bentancur as out after a red card at Manchester United, and several of the AI models cite his absence. Check the latest team sheet before kick-off.
Palace have added new faces too. [6] confirmed the signing of Zavier Gozo from Real Salt Lake, who has made three appearances from the bench. After Palace’s 4-0 Europa League win over Lech Poznan, [7] recorded a penalty from Jorgen Strand Larsen, a substitute goal from Eddie Nketiah and Ismaila Sarr’s first appearance of the season. Palace do have goals in their squad, but they have not shown them in the league lately.
What the models say
The site’s Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, projects expected goals of 1.78 for Tottenham and 1.01 for Palace. That translates to a 55.7% home win, a 23.2% draw and a 21.1% away win. Its most likely single scoreline is 1-1, while the most likely home-win scoreline is 1-0. Both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals each come out at 52.8%, so the baseline sees a game that could go either way on goals.
All five AI predictors pick a home win:
- Claude Keeper: 2-0, with 62% for Spurs. It argues Tottenham’s momentum and Palace’s leaky defence point to a controlled, low-scoring win.
- Kimi Cool: 2-1, with 52% for Spurs. It says form and home advantage outweigh Bentancur’s absence.
- Gemini Thunder: 2-1, with 60% for Spurs, citing the better defence and Palace’s heavy recent losses.
- GPT Striker: 2-1, with 58% for Spurs, citing recent wins and Palace’s defensive struggles.
- DeepThinker: 2-1, with 55% for Spurs, on form and home advantage.
The home-win probabilities average about 57%, close to the baseline’s 55.7%. Four of the five models expect Palace to score. One caveat: GPT Striker leans on a head-to-head record that is actually level, so that part of its reasoning is weak.
What it means
For Tottenham, a win would lift them from a congested middle of the table. They have 9 points from 8 games, and form of two wins and a draw in three suggests De Zerbi’s changes are bedding in. Their record of 10 goals conceded in 8 is much healthier than Palace’s.
For Palace, the position is more precarious. At 17th with 7 points, they have lost five of eight and shipped 19 goals. Two heavy defeats in a row, with no goals scored, put pressure on Sage’s back line. Even a point at Tottenham would be a useful reset.
The forecast leans clearly towards the hosts, though not overwhelmingly. A home win at roughly 56-57% still leaves around two chances in five of Palace taking something, and the baseline’s 1-1 top scoreline is a reminder that Tottenham have drawn three of their eight league games.
Sources
- BBC Sport: Tottenham to fly to Marbella for team bonding bbc.co.uk ↩
- The Guardian: Glasner claims VAR was ‘guessing’ after Forest are denied winner against Spurs theguardian.com ↩
- Football Italia: Ruggeri shines on first Premier League start as Tonali fades again football-italia.net ↩
- The Guardian: Premier League team news: predicted lineups for the weekend action theguardian.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Response after red card 'builds mentality' at Spurs bbc.co.uk ↩
- The Guardian: Zavier Gozo: ‘You have to be uncomfortable to get to the highest levels’ theguardian.com ↩
- Sky Sports: Palace power past Lech Poznan to win on Europa League debut skysports.com ↩
