Udinese searching for goals and answers
Udinese arrive at the Dacia Arena on Saturday evening in 17th place with five points from nine games. They have won once, drawn twice and lost six. The goal difference tells the story: nine scored and 18 conceded. Their recent results are a run of losses and a draw, with a 1-0 home defeat to Cagliari, a 2-1 loss at Torino, a 3-0 home loss to Lecce and a 2-0 home loss to Milan, followed by a 0-0 draw at Parma on 28 October. That adds up to one goal in five league matches.
The squad news is not encouraging either. Jakub Piotrowski needed heart surgery for a benign arrhythmia and was reported to be [1]. James Abankwah [2]. Jurgen Ekkelenkamp was sent off against Lecce, and the match report said he was [3].
There are a few positives for Kosta Runjaić. David Alaba arrived as a free agent on a [4] and made his debut off the bench at Torino. Oumar Solet’s return to the squad was described as [5]. Nicolò Zaniolo is also back in the side after [6], though that report carried some uncertainty. Udinese’s attack rating in our model is 0.85 and their defence rating is 1.13. For a side that needs goals, that is a thin base.
Roma arrive unbeaten and scoring
Gian Piero Gasperini’s side sit third on 21 points from nine games, with six wins, three draws and no defeats. They have scored 23 goals and conceded eight, which gives them the better numbers in our ratings: an attack rating of 1.58 and a defence rating of 0.84.
Their last five league results show a team that rarely loses control. Roma beat Cagliari 4-2 at home on 27 October, three days after a 3-3 draw at Napoli. Before that came a 2-0 home win over Genoa, a 0-0 draw at Como and a 2-2 home draw with Inter on 19 September. Three draws in five suggest Roma can be stretched, and they have conceded in four of those five games. That is a small opening for a Udinese side with little scoring form.
Off the pitch, Roma have settled a few squad matters. Paulo Dybala, Bryan Cristante and Gianluca Mancini all [7]. Lorenzo Pellegrini was [8] earlier this month. Marten de Roon was reported as [9], and Dybala was named as a starter in attack in [10]. Those reports are a few weeks old, so Saturday’s lineup could differ. The short turnaround from Tuesday’s game is the main variable on the Roma side.
What the models say
The Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, projects 0.96 goals for Udinese and 2.19 for Roma. It gives Roma a 65.3% chance of winning, the draw 19.3% and Udinese 15.4%. Its most likely score is 0-2. It puts both-teams-to-score at 54.7% and over 2.5 goals at 60.8%.
All five prediction models side with the visitors:
- Claude Keeper: 0-2, with Roma at 70%, citing the gap in form and ratings.
- Kimi Cool: 0-2, with Roma at 63%.
- Gemini Thunder: 1-2, with Roma at 60% and the draw at 25%.
- GPT Striker: 1-2, with Roma at 70%.
- DeepThinker: 1-2, with Roma at 60%.
The models agree on the winner and differ only on whether Udinese score. The 1-2 picks allow for that, which fits the baseline’s roughly 55% chance of both teams scoring. The 0-2 picks lean on Udinese’s goal drought. The head-to-head record is the main reason for caution: Udinese won the February meeting [11] at home, and Roma won the November game 2-0. That makes it one win each, with no draws.
What it means
For Roma, a win would extend an unbeaten start that has them third with 21 points. Their form carries two messages: they score freely, with 23 goals in nine games, but they have been drawing more than a title-chasing side would like. Saturday is the kind of fixture where those draws turn back into wins.
For Udinese, five points from nine games has them 17th, and the 0-0 at Parma was the first time in five games they avoided defeat. A draw here would be a good result. The 15.4% win probability in the baseline reflects how far they have to climb. The key question is whether the home side can score. Based on their recent output, our models expect Roma to win either 2-0 or 2-1.
Sources
- Football Italia: After McTominay, Udinese player Piotrowski also needs heart surgery football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Torino 2-1 Udinese: Kulenovic punishes Okoye error to snatch 3 points football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Udinese 0-3 Lecce: Runjaic falls to five straight defeats football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Runjaic explains Alaba bench call: ‘His last official game was three months ago’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Runjaic: ‘Another big mistake, like against Cagliari’ as Udinese slump to fourth straight defeat football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Parma 0-0 Udinese: Everybody unhappy in relegation battle football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Galantic: ‘Roma return to Champions League fundamental after seven years’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Gasperini: ‘Roma and Como same level, cannot predict Real Madrid choices’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Gasperini: ‘Roma fans waited years, Real Madrid best in the world’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Soule: ‘Could be a magical night for Roma against Real Madrid’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Lazio’s Gattuso looks ahead after Udinese win: ‘I hope to take points from Milan, the club of my heart’ football-italia.net ↩
