Match Overview
Villarreal CF is set to host Levante UD at the Estadio de la Cerámica in a LaLiga encounter that sees both teams looking to solidify their positions. Villarreal, under new coach Inigo Perez, recently broke a five-match winless streak, a result that could be a turning point for the squad. Their attack has shown promise, with players like Pape Gueye, Gerard Moreno, and Nicolas Pépé contributing goals this season [1]. The return of Logan Costa to the starting lineup after a cruciate ligament injury also provides a boost to their defensive options [2]. However, they have also shown defensive vulnerabilities, with goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi’s saves preventing worse statistics in recent games [3].
Levante UD, on the other hand, arrives with a more challenging outlook. The team has been hit by a series of injuries, with Álex Primo, Karl Etta Eyong, and Hugo Sotelo all sidelined [4], [5]. Their recent match against Athletic Club was suspended, adding to a disrupted schedule [6]. Coach Luís Castro is reportedly using the international break as a ‘second pre-season’ to reorganize and improve the team’s play, indicating a period of adjustment [7]. Despite the challenges, players like Dani Requena are noted for their growing form and importance to the team [8].
Team Form and Key Players
Villarreal CF’s recent form shows a mixed bag, with a record of one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five LaLiga matches (WLLLD). Their latest victory, a 3-1 away win against Málaga CF, was a crucial morale booster after a challenging start to the season. The team has scored 10 goals and conceded 11 in six games, highlighting both their attacking potential and defensive frailties. Key attacking figures include Pape Gueye, who has netted three goals from five shots on target, and both Gerard Moreno and Nicolas Pépé, who have each scored two goals [1]. The return of Logan Costa from injury is expected to strengthen the defense, while Juan Foyth remains unavailable due to injury [2].
Levante UD’s form is slightly better in terms of points, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five league outings (LDWDL). They have scored 7 goals and conceded 9 in five matches. However, the team is grappling with significant injury concerns. Álex Primo is recovering from knee surgery, Karl Etta Eyong is out with a rectus femoris injury, and Hugo Sotelo is sidelined with a knee sprain [4], [5]. Coach Luís Castro has acknowledged the need for improvement and is using the current period to refine the team’s strategy [7]. Despite these setbacks, players like Dani Requena are showing good form and are expected to be influential [8].
Head-to-Head and Predictions
The recent head-to-head record between these two teams shows a split, with Villarreal securing a dominant 5-1 home victory in May 2026, while Levante managed a 1-0 away win in February 2026. This suggests that while Villarreal can be formidable at home, Levante is capable of causing an upset. However, the current circumstances, particularly Levante’s injury woes, lean heavily in favor of the home side.
Our models are in strong agreement, predicting a Villarreal victory. The baseline Poisson model forecasts a 2-1 home win, with a 57.5% probability for a home win, 20.0% for a draw, and 22.5% for an away win. The expected goals are 2.24 for Villarreal and 1.36 for Levante. Other models, including Opus, Kimi-Cool, Gemini-Flash, GPT-Striker, and Deep-Thinker, also converge on a 2-1 home win, with Opus even suggesting a 2-0 victory. These predictions are underpinned by Villarreal’s recent form turnaround, their superior attacking ratings (1.2768 vs 1.0668), and Levante’s extensive injury list and defensive rating (1.1079). The consensus points towards Villarreal capitalizing on their home advantage and Levante’s current struggles.
What it means
Villarreal CF currently sits in 14th position in the league table with 5 points from 6 games (WLLLD). A win against Levante would be crucial for them to climb out of the lower half of the table and build momentum under their new coach, Inigo Perez. Their recent 3-1 away win against Málaga CF suggests a positive shift in form, and securing another victory at home would reinforce this. The next fixture for Villarreal is an away game against Real Sociedad, which will be another challenging test.
Levante UD is positioned just below Villarreal in 15th place, also with 5 points, but from one less game (LDWDL). Their form has been inconsistent, and the numerous injuries to key players are undoubtedly impacting their performance. A positive result at the Estadio de la Cerámica would be a significant boost for their morale and help them distance themselves from the relegation zone. Following this match, Levante will host Real Valladolid, a game where they will be looking to leverage home advantage to secure points.
Sources
- Marca: El 'Pichichi' Gueye desatasca el ataque amarillo marca.com ↩
- Marca: Logan Costa vuelve a una titularidad 469 días después marca.com ↩
- Marca: El Villarreal iguala su peor inicio defensivo en Primera marca.com ↩
- Marca: Levante - Barça: Los culés, a por la 'manita' de LaLiga marca.com ↩
- Marca: Levante - Athletic | Llegó el día de pegar el estirón: previa, análisis, pronóstico y predicción marca.com ↩
- Marca: Suspendido el Levante-Athletic marca.com ↩
- Marca: Terzic: "Es un derbi, pero las porterías están en el mismo sitio y miden igual" marca.com ↩
- Marca: Luís Castro: "¿El césped?, si en la grada una persona casi muere de calor; el Levante no puede tapar el sol" marca.com ↩
