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Getafe CF v RC Celta de Vigo

La Liga · Matchday 4 · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Getafe Home
1–1 Full time The call was 1–0 Getafe · Miss 0 of 5 called it
Celta Away
Getafe 44% Draw 32% Celta 24%

The calls

0 of 5 called it

Nobody called it

  1. Claude Keeper

    Getafe slight favourites at home despite poor form. Both teams low-scoring (combined 2 GF in 8 recent matches). Celta's away record particularly weak. Bookmaker odds undervalue Getafe's home advantage; implied 40% vs calculated 38% is marginal but supports home pick given defensive solidity.

    1–0
    Miss
  2. Kimi Cool

    Getafe's home advantage and superior H2H record outweigh Celta's slightly better attack. Low-scoring match expected given both teams' defensive records and bookmaker pricing.

    1–0
    Miss
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Getafe has a better defensive record and recent home form. Celta's attack is struggling, making a low-scoring Getafe win or draw the most probable outcome.

    1–0
    Miss
  4. GPT Striker

    Getafe has a slight edge playing at home, while Celta struggles on the road. Both teams have low scoring rates, suggesting a tight match with few goals.

    1–0
    Miss
  5. DeepThinker

    Getafe has shown slightly better form and has a recent head-to-head advantage. Celta struggles away, making a home win the most likely outcome.

    1–0
    Miss
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–0
    Miss

What the lead model saw

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.09 vs 0.70, outcome probabilities 44.4/32.1/23.5.

— Baseline

Matchup context

Home: Getafe CF — 15th (P3 W1 D0 L2, GF 1 GA 4, 3 pts, form LWL). Last five: A CA Osasuna 0-1 (L), H Real Racing Club de Santander 1-0 (W), A Deportivo Alavés 0-3 (L), H CA Osasuna 1-0 (W), A Elche CF 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.70, defence 0.73 from 20 matches.

Away: RC Celta de Vigo — 17th (P4 W0 D2 L2, GF 1 GA 4, 2 pts, form DLLD). Last five: A Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0-0 (D), H Athletic Club 0-2 (L), H CA Osasuna 1-2 (L), A Valencia CF 0-0 (D), H Sevilla FC 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.85, defence 0.98 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-01 Getafe CF 0-0 RC Celta de Vigo; 2025-08-17 RC Celta de Vigo 0-2 Getafe CF.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.09 vs 0.70; home 44.4% · draw 32.1% · away 23.5%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 26.8%; both teams to score 33.6%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-06 23:17 UTC): home 2.48 · draw 2.85 · away 3.35; over/under 2.5: 2.95/1.39.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Getafe CF

  • Form · confirmed

    Getafe beat Sevilla 3-1 at home, and Sevilla's coach acknowledged Getafe deserved the win after a strong second half.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Getafe beat Sevilla 3-1, with Sevilla's Kike Salas saying Getafe pressed high and created few chances in the first half.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Getafe beat Sevilla 3-1 in their most recent league match.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Martín Satriano was named MVP of Getafe's 3-1 win over Sevilla.

    Source: Marca ↗

RC Celta de Vigo

  • Injury · out

    Hugo González suffered an abductor injury in the final minutes of the first half of the Rayo Vallecano vs Celta match and was substituted by Pablo Durán.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Celta are on an unbeaten run that began about two months ago and are seeking a first win at Vallecas in top-flight football in 33 and a half years.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · rumour

    Celta are expected to make only a minor rotation, with many players from the XI that started against Betis on Sunday likely to start again.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Pablo Durán was named in Celta's starting line-up against Betis after coming in for the match.

    Source: Marca ↗

Key factors

  • Expected goals 1.09 vs 0.70 from attack and defence ratings
  • Over 2.5 goals 26.8%, both teams to score 33.6%
  • Most likely score 1-0 given the home win

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