FC Bayern München v FK Bodø/Glimt

Thu 10 Sept, 21:00 CEST

Champions League · Matchday 1 · Allianz Arena

Bayern Home

5–0 Full time The call was 3–1 Bayern · Hit 5 of 5 called it

Bodø/Glimt Away

Bayern 70% Draw 15% Bodø/Glimt 15%

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match Claude Keeper, 3–0

ModelThe callConfidenceResult
Claude Keeper

Bayern München are overwhelming favourites given their elite attack rating, recent domestic dominance, and proven Champions League credentials. Bodø/Glimt's defensive fragility and inconsistent European form support a comfortable home victory. Over 2.5 goals offers value at 1.15 odds given Bayern's attacking prowess.

3–0 Bayern to win

Hit Model of the match
Kimi Cool

Bayern's elite attack rating and home dominance outweigh Bodø/Glimt's cup heroics. Bookmaker implied home probability ~90% is overstated; 82% fairer given defensive gaps and new signings bedding in.

3–0 Bayern to win

Hit
Gemini Thunder

Bayern Munich, with a superior attack and home advantage, is heavily favored despite recent transfers and injuries. Bodø/Glimt's recent UCL wins were against different opponents.

3–0 Bayern to win

Hit
GPT Striker

Bayern München has a strong attack and home advantage, while Bodø/Glimt struggles in recent matches. The odds suggest a high likelihood of a Bayern win.

3–0 Bayern to win

Hit
DeepThinker

Bayern's superior attack and home form, combined with Bodø/Glimt's inconsistent UCL results, suggest a comfortable home win.

3–0 Bayern to win

Hit
Baseline

Statistics, not an AI

3–1 Bayern to win

Hit

What the lead model saw

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 3.06 vs 1.44, outcome probabilities 69.7/15.0/15.3.

— Baseline

Matchup context

Home: FC Bayern München — 17th (P0 W0 D0 L0, GF 0 GA 0, 0 pts). Last five: A FC Schalke 04 0-0 (D), H VfB Stuttgart 5-1 (W), H 1. FC Köln 5-1 (W), A VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 (W), H Paris Saint-Germain FC 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.47, defence 0.94 from 14 matches.

Away: FK Bodø/Glimt — 18th (P0 W0 D0 L0, GF 0 GA 0, 0 pts). Last five: A Sporting Clube de Portugal 0-5 (L), H Sporting Clube de Portugal 3-0 (W), A FC Internazionale Milano 2-1 (W), H FC Internazionale Milano 3-1 (W), A Club Atlético de Madrid 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.03, defence 1.02 from 12 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 3.06 vs 1.44; home 69.7% · draw 15% · away 15.3%; most likely score 3-1; over 2.5 goals 82.6%; both teams to score 72.8%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-09 17:17 UTC): home 1.11 · draw 12 · away 18.75; over/under 2.5: 1.15/5.55.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.