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Sevilla FC v Valencia CF

La Liga · Matchday 5 · Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Sevilla Home
1–0 Full time The call was 1–0 Sevilla · Hit 5 of 5 called it
Valencia Away
Sevilla 55% Draw 24% Valencia 22%

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match Claude Keeper, 2–0

  1. Claude Keeper

    Sevilla's strong home form and recent recruitment contrast sharply with Valencia's defensive crisis and goal-scoring drought. Valencia missing five key players including defensive reinforcements. Bookmaker odds (2.08 home) undervalue Sevilla's advantage; implied 48% home probability versus 72% derived from form, ratings, and injury context.

    2–0
    Hit Model of the match
  2. Kimi Cool

    Sevilla's superior form, home advantage, and Valencia's extensive injury list (6 players out) outweigh H2H upset. New signings boost squad depth. Implied home probability 48% vs my 52% creates value.

    2–1
    Hit
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Sevilla has a clear advantage given Valencia's abysmal form, numerous injuries, and weaker attack. Despite recent transfers, Sevilla's home advantage and better ratings should secure a win.

    2–1
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    Sevilla has shown better form and attacking capability compared to a struggling Valencia side. The home advantage and Valencia's defensive issues suggest a likely win for Sevilla.

    2–0
    Hit
  5. DeepThinker

    Sevilla's strong recent form and home advantage, combined with Valencia's poor form and multiple injuries, suggest a likely home win.

    2–1
    Hit
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–0
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.76 vs 1.03, outcome probabilities 54.6/23.5/22.0.

— Baseline

Matchup context

Home: Sevilla FC — 6th (P4 W2 D1 L1, GF 7 GA 6, 7 pts, form DLWW). Last five: A RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1-1 (D), H Club Atlético de Madrid 1-3 (L), A Athletic Club 3-1 (W), H Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2-1 (W), A RC Celta de Vigo 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.95, defence 1.04 from 20 matches.

Away: Valencia CF — 20th (P4 W0 D1 L3, GF 1 GA 9, 1 pts, form LLLD). Last five: H FC Barcelona 0-5 (L), A RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-3 (L), H Real Betis Balompié 0-1 (L), H RC Celta de Vigo 0-0 (D), H FC Barcelona 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.87, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-21 Sevilla FC 0-2 Valencia CF; 2025-12-07 Valencia CF 1-1 Sevilla FC.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.76 vs 1.03; home 54.6% · draw 23.5% · away 22%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 52.7%; both teams to score 53.1%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-10 17:17 UTC): home 2.08 · draw 3.25 · away 3.86; over/under 2.5: 2.3/1.6.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Sevilla FC

  • Form · confirmed

    Sevilla lost 3-1 away at Getafe, their fourth defeat of the season and second on the road.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Kike Salas scored Sevilla's goal in the 3-1 defeat at Getafe, and coach García Plaza praised his season as exceptional.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · doubtful

    Kike Salas took a blow to the head from a long ball and said he was quite dizzy after the match against Getafe.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Sevilla lost 3-1 to Getafe after scoring first and playing well in the first half, with Getafe's 2-1 goal coming from a disputed foul on Manu Bueno.

    Source: Marca ↗

Valencia CF

  • Line-up

    Pepelu has recently been used as a centre-back, and says he will play wherever the coach puts him.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Stole Dimitrievski made a late save in the Elche match that preserved Valencia's win.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Valencia has not won a home match in several games and is seeking a first Mestalla win ahead of the Real Madrid match.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Return · fit

    Umar Sadiq returned from a two-month injury layoff and scored the winning goal in Valencia's victory over Elche.

    Source: Marca ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Sevilla FC

  • Transfer · confirmed

    Jon Guridi was signed by Sevilla FC.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Giorgi Kochorashvili was signed by Sevilla FC.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Sangante was signed by Sevilla FC.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Robbie Ure was signed by Sevilla FC.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Julio Díaz was signed by Sevilla FC.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Juan Iglesias was signed by Sevilla FC.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Fran González was signed by Sevilla FC.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Luis García is the current coach of Sevilla.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Kike Salas was previously sent off in the opening match of the season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Marcos Fernández scored for Espanyol.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Lucas Stassin has experience playing with Robbie Ure from Anderlecht.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Lucas Stassin is capable of playing as a lone striker or with two or three forwards.

    Source: Marca ↗

Valencia CF

  • Injury · out

    Foulquier suffered an injury during training and will not be available for the match.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · fit

    David Otorbi previously held the record as the youngest debutant for Valencia CF in any official competition.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    David Otorbi received more playing time against Deportivo La Coruña, playing for half an hour.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Valencia CF has 58 players on loan as of September 2026.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Copete is recovering from an injury.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Justin de Haas is recovering from an injury.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · fit

    Mouctar Diakhaby has a history of recurrent muscular problems.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · fit

    Rodri apologized to Valencia and their fans.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Carlos Corberán's contract with Valencia CF was officially extended in July until June 2028.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Guido Rodríguez has been training despite an injury but will not be cleared to play.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Luis Rioja has a heel problem that prevents him from running and will not travel to Sevilla.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · fit

    Gayà spoke with Rodri after his controversial remarks.

    Source: Marca ↗

Key factors

  • Expected goals 1.76 vs 1.03 from attack and defence ratings
  • Over 2.5 goals 52.7%, both teams to score 53.1%
  • Most likely score 1-0 given the home win

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