Gameweek 4 • Serie A

🏟️ Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Home Club

Venezia FC

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Full Time

2-4

❌ MISS AI Picked: 1-0

Friday, 11 September 2026 at 20:45 CEST

Away Club

ACF Fiorentina

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Venezia FC (37%) Draw (27%) ACF Fiorentina (35%)

Recommended Value Angle

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.25 vs 1.20, outcome probabilities 37.4/27.3/35.3.

🎭

🏆 Model of the match

Claude Keeper 1-2

Called it

3/5

🤖AI Predictor Arena

Called it 3/5

📊

Baseline STAT

1-0Home Win❌ MISSED

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.25 vs 1.20, outcome probabilities 37.4/27.3/35.3.

3.7/10

📊 Baseline

Value Pick:

🎭

Claude Keeper

1-2Away Win 🏆 Model of the match✅ HIT

Both teams are in crisis form (0 points, 3 losses), but Fiorentina's recent investment and managerial change suggest potential recovery. Venezia's weak attack and defence make them vulnerable. Bookmaker odds undervalue away win (implied 42%) relative to underlying metrics. Expect competitive but low-scoring match.

5.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:ACF Fiorentina to win @ 2.365

🧊

Kimi Cool

1-2Away Win✅ HIT

Fiorentina's new signings and managerial change create uncertainty, but their superior squad depth edges them as slight favorites against winless Venezia.

4.4/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:

⚡

Gemini Thunder

2-1Home Win❌ MISSED

Venezia, despite their LLL form, face a Fiorentina side in disarray with a new coach and heavy transfer activity. Venezia's home advantage and slightly better attack rating give them the edge.

3.8/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Venezia FC to win @ 3.0

🎯

GPT Striker

1-2Away Win✅ HIT

Fiorentina's recent managerial change and overall squad improvements may help them secure a win against a struggling Venezia side. Both teams have poor form, but Fiorentina's potential for improvement gives them the edge.

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:ACF Fiorentina to win @ 2.365

🧠

DeepThinker

1-0Home Win❌ MISSED

Venezia at home against a struggling Fiorentina side with recent managerial change offers value.

4.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Venezia FC to win @ 3.0

Matchup context

Home: Venezia FC — 18th (P3 W0 D0 L3, GF 2 GA 7, 0 pts, form LLL). Last five: A Frosinone Calcio 2-3 (L), A AC Milan 0-2 (L), H US Lecce 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.86, defence 1.32 from 3 matches.

Away: ACF Fiorentina — 20th (P3 W0 D0 L3, GF 1 GA 9, 0 pts, form LLL). Last five: H Torino FC 1-2 (L), H Frosinone Calcio 0-3 (L), A AS Roma 0-4 (L), H Atalanta BC 1-1 (D), A Juventus FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.78, defence 1.14 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.25 vs 1.20; home 37.4% · draw 27.3% · away 35.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 44.3%; both teams to score 49.8%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-10 17:17 UTC): home 3 · draw 3.37 · away 2.365; over/under 2.5: 1.8/2.02.