Gameweek 4 • Serie A

🏟️ Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Home Club

Atalanta BC

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Predicted Outcome

1-0

Home Win (4.5/10)

Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 20:45 CEST

Away Club

Cagliari Calcio

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Atalanta BC (46%) Draw (29%) Cagliari Calcio (26%)

Recommended Value Angle

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.27 vs 0.88, outcome probabilities 45.5/28.7/25.8.

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Baseline STAT

1-0Home Win

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.27 vs 0.88, outcome probabilities 45.5/28.7/25.8.

4.5/10

📊 Baseline

Value Pick:

🎭

Claude Keeper

2-0Home Win

Atalanta favored at home with stronger attacking metrics and recent momentum. Cagliari's low-scoring pattern (2 goals in 3 matches) and away record suggest limited threat. Bookmaker odds undervalue home win; implied probability ~63% aligns with calculated 62%, but slight edge supports selection given squad reinforcements.

6.2/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Atalanta BC to win @ 1.595

🧊

Kimi Cool

2-1Home Win

Atalanta's superior attack and home advantage outweigh Gaetano's suspension. Bookmaker home odds 1.595 imply 62.7%, my 58% is close but slight value exists. Cagliari's low scoring and away form suggest narrow home win.

5.8/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Atalanta BC to win @ 1.595

⚡

Gemini Thunder

2-1Home Win

Atalanta has a stronger attack and home advantage, despite a recent loss. Cagliari's away form is decent, but their attack rating is lower. The home win offers value against the bookmakers' odds.

5.8/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Atalanta BC to win @ 1.595

🎯

GPT Striker

2-1Home Win

Atalanta has a slight edge at home and has shown better form recently, while Cagliari struggles without Belotti. The head-to-head record favors Atalanta, making them the likely winners.

5.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Atalanta BC to win @ 1.595

🧠

DeepThinker

2-1Home Win

Atalanta has a stronger attack and home advantage, but Cagliari's defensive solidity and recent form suggest a close match.

5.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:

Matchup context

Home: Atalanta BC — 8th (P3 W2 D0 L1, GF 4 GA 3, 6 pts, form LWW). Last five: A AS Roma 1-2 (L), H Bologna FC 1909 1-0 (W), H US Sassuolo Calcio 2-1 (W), A ACF Fiorentina 1-1 (D), H Bologna FC 1909 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.07, defence 0.89 from 20 matches.

Away: Cagliari Calcio — 9th (P3 W2 D0 L1, GF 2 GA 1, 6 pts, form WLW). Last five: H US Lecce 1-0 (W), H FC Internazionale Milano 0-1 (L), A Parma Calcio 1913 1-0 (W), A AC Milan 2-1 (W), H Torino FC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.85, defence 0.93 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-27 Cagliari Calcio 3-2 Atalanta BC; 2025-12-13 Atalanta BC 2-1 Cagliari Calcio.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.27 vs 0.88; home 45.5% · draw 28.7% · away 25.8%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 36.6%; both teams to score 42.3%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 17:17 UTC): home 1.595 · draw 4.05 · away 5.8; over/under 2.5: 1.905/1.855.

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Atalanta BC

Injury · out

Gianluca Gaetano received a red card at the end of the match against Roma.

Atalanta BC

Cagliari Calcio

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Matchup context

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Key Tactical Factors

Public Audit Promise

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