predictgame

SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Benteler-Arena

SC Paderborn Home
0–2 Full time The call was 1–2 Stuttgart · Hit 5 of 5 called it
Stuttgart Away
SC Paderborn 20% Draw 25% Stuttgart 55%

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match Claude Keeper, 1–2

  1. Claude Keeper

    Stuttgart's attacking quality (1.18) outweighs recent poor results. Paderborn's weak defence and inconsistent form (1W-1D-2L) make them vulnerable. Bookmaker odds undervalue Stuttgart at 1.595 given their talent advantage. Three Stuttgart injuries are significant but insufficient to reverse the underlying quality gap.

    1–2
    Hit Model of the match
  2. Kimi Cool

    Stuttgart's injuries and poor form create uncertainty. Bookmaker odds imply 62.7% away win, but I assess 58%. Paderborn at 4.9 offers value at my 18% vs implied 20.4%.

    1–2
    Hit
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Stuttgart has a superior attack and defense, despite recent losses. Paderborn's attack is weaker and they are looking to replace a key player. Stuttgart's injuries are notable but their overall strength should prevail.

    1–2
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    VfB Stuttgart has a stronger attack and has shown more scoring potential despite recent struggles. Paderborn's form is concerning, making Stuttgart the likely winner.

    1–2
    Hit
  5. DeepThinker

    VfB Stuttgart has a stronger attack rating and better recent form despite injuries. SC Paderborn's defensive issues and lower attack rating suggest a likely away win.

    1–2
    Hit
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–2
    Hit

What the lead model saw

VfB Stuttgart has a stronger attack rating and better recent form despite injuries. SC Paderborn's defensive issues and lower attack rating suggest a likely away win.

— DeepThinker

Matchup context

Home: SC Paderborn 07 — 12th (P4 W1 D1 L2, GF 3 GA 5, 4 pts, form WLLD). Last five: H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 (W), A Borussia Dortmund 0-3 (L), H SC Freiburg 0-1 (L), A 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-0 (D). Rating: attack 0.79, defence 0.91 from 4 matches.

Away: VfB Stuttgart — 15th (P4 W1 D0 L3, GF 6 GA 9, 3 pts, form LLWL). Last five: H Borussia Dortmund 0-1 (L), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 (L), H 1. FC Köln 4-1 (W), A FC Bayern München 1-5 (L), A Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 1.18, defence 1.05 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.52 vs 1.56; home 37.2% · draw 23.9% · away 38.9%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 59.6%; both teams to score 61.8%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-09 11:17 UTC): home 4.9 · draw 4.6 · away 1.595; over/under 2.5: 1.37/3.05.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

SC Paderborn 07

  • Line-up · confirmed

    Santiago Castaneda started and played the full 90 minutes in Paderborn's 0-0 draw at Borussia Mönchengladbach on Matchday 8.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    SC Paderborn drew 0-0 at Borussia Mönchengladbach on Matchday 8.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Paderborn goalkeeper Nahuel Noll made several key saves in the 0-0 draw at Gladbach and received 39 per cent of the player-of-the-match votes.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Paderborn made six changes after their cup exit to VfB Stuttgart, with Nahuel Noll, Mattes Hansen, Raphael Obermair, Tjark Scheller, Stefano Marino and Gabriel Vidović starting.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

VfB Stuttgart

  • Form · confirmed

    VfB Stuttgart won 4-2 away to Bayer Leverkusen.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Stuttgart's recent match against Leverkusen was marked by a flood of cards, which Leverkusen's Ibrahim Maza criticised referee Benjamin Brand for.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Injury · out

    Angelo Stiller missed Stuttgart's match at Leverkusen with an adductor injury.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Injury · out

    Fabian Bredlow was left out of Stuttgart's squad for the match at Leverkusen, reported as an adductor injury.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

SC Paderborn 07

  • Transfer · confirmed

    Rayan Philippe has completed his signing for Paderborn.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Rayan Philippe was brought straight into the starting line-up for Paderborn after his signing.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Laurin Curda is expected to make his first Bundesliga start.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Stefano Marino was brought into the starting XI for Paderborn.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Steffen Tigges was introduced at half-time for Paderborn.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Santiago Castaneda played the full 90 minutes in all three of Paderborn's matches in September.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Finn Jeltsch is an undisputed first-choice centre-back for VfB Stuttgart and has not missed a single minute this season.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    SC Paderborn 07 is seeking alternatives to replace the departed Mika Baur.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Gabriel Vidovic is a potential option to help SC Paderborn 07 find their way to the goal.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Laurin Ulrich is a potential option to help SC Paderborn 07 find their way to the goal.

    Source: Kicker ↗

VfB Stuttgart

Key factors

  • VfB Stuttgart's stronger attack rating
  • SC Paderborn's defensive vulnerabilities
  • VfB Stuttgart's recent form

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