Real Sociedad de Fútbol v RC Deportivo La Coruña

Sun 11 Oct, 16:15 CEST

La Liga · Matchday 8 · Estadio Municipal de Anoeta

Real Sociedad Home

3–2 Full time The call was 2–1 Real Sociedad · Hit 5 of 5 called it

Deportivo Away

Real Sociedad 58% Draw 24% Deportivo 18%

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match Claude Keeper, 2–0

ModelThe callConfidenceResult
Claude Keeper

Real Sociedad favoured at home with better defensive metrics and recent form (WLWDW). Deportivo shows resilience (DLDWW) but weaker away record and inferior defence rating. No head-to-head history. Bookmaker odds slightly undervalue home win; modest value identified.

2–0 Real Sociedad to win

Hit Model of the match
Kimi Cool

Real Sociedad's superior attack rating and home advantage outweigh Deportivo's solid start. Bookmaker implied home probability is 62.5% (1/1.6), my 58% is close but slight value on draw at 24% vs implied 24.2%. Actually rechecking: implied home = 62.5%, my 58% is below. No value in h2h. Over 2.5 implied 57.8%, likely accurate given both teams score. Null value pick.

2–1 Real Sociedad to win

Hit
Gemini Thunder

Real Sociedad has a stronger attack and good home form. Deportivo's defense is solid, but their away form and recent draws suggest they might struggle to win. The home team's odds offer value.

2–1 Real Sociedad to win

Hit
GPT Striker

Real Sociedad has a slight edge at home and a better attack rating, while Deportivo has struggled to secure wins recently. The match is expected to be competitive, but home advantage tilts the probabilities.

2–1 Real Sociedad to win

Hit
DeepThinker

Real Sociedad has a stronger recent form and home advantage, despite Deportivo La Coruña's solid defence.

2–1 Real Sociedad to win

Hit
Baseline

Statistics, not an AI

2–1 Real Sociedad to win

Hit

What the lead model saw

Real Sociedad's superior attack rating and home advantage outweigh Deportivo's solid start. Bookmaker implied home probability is 62.5% (1/1.6), my 58% is close but slight value on draw at 24% vs implied 24.2%. Actually rechecking: implied home = 62.5%, my 58% is below. No value in h2h. Over 2.5 implied 57.8%, likely accurate given both teams score. Null value pick.

— Kimi Cool

Market: Real Sociedad de Fútbol to win · market 63%

Matchup context

Home: Real Sociedad de Fútbol — 8th (P7 W3 D1 L3, GF 9 GA 13, 10 pts, form WLWDW). Last five: A Valencia CF 3-2 (W), H Club Atlético de Madrid 0-3 (L), A Elche CF 3-2 (W), H RC Celta de Vigo 0-0 (D), H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.08, defence 1.23 from 20 matches.

Away: RC Deportivo La Coruña — 7th (P7 W2 D4 L1, GF 10 GA 8, 10 pts, form DLDWW). Last five: H Real Betis Balompié 1-1 (D), H Sevilla FC 0-1 (L), A Getafe CF 1-1 (D), A Villarreal CF 3-2 (W), H Valencia CF 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.99, defence 0.92 from 7 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.59 vs 1.40; home 42% · draw 24.2% · away 33.7%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 57.5%; both teams to score 60%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 19 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-10 11:17 UTC): home 1.6 · draw 4.125 · away 5.5; over/under 2.5: 1.73/2.1.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.