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SV 07 Elversberg v FC Augsburg

Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Elversberg Home
4–3 Full time The call was 2–1 Elversberg · Hit 2 of 5 called it
Augsburg Away
Elversberg 40% Draw 30% Augsburg 30%

The calls

2 of 5 called it

Model of the match DeepThinker, 2–1

  1. Claude Keeper

    Augsburg favored despite home disadvantage. Superior attack/defence ratings, better standing, and recent form edge. Elversberg squad depth concerns from international call-ups. Close match with slight away advantage; bookmaker odds slightly undervalue home chances.

    2–1
    Hit
  2. Kimi Cool
    No answer
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Augsburg has a stronger attack and better form, despite playing away. Elversberg's recent results include two losses, suggesting a slight disadvantage.

    1–2
    Miss
  4. GPT Striker

    Augsburg has a better attack and overall form compared to Elversberg, who have struggled defensively. The absence of previous head-to-head meetings also favors the away side, making them more likely to secure a win.

    1–2
    Miss
  5. DeepThinker

    Elversberg has strong home form with recent wins, while Augsburg's defence has been inconsistent, making a home win the most likely outcome.

    2–1
    Hit Model of the match
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    2–1
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Elversberg has strong home form with recent wins, while Augsburg's defence has been inconsistent, making a home win the most likely outcome.

— DeepThinker

Market: SV 07 Elversberg to win · market 41%

Matchup context

Home: SV 07 Elversberg — 9th (P5 W2 D1 L2, GF 8 GA 8, 7 pts, form LDLWW). Last five: A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-1 (L), A FC Schalke 04 0-0 (D), H FC Bayern München 1-2 (L), A Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3 (W), H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 0.96, defence 0.95 from 5 matches.

Away: FC Augsburg — 6th (P5 W2 D2 L1, GF 13 GA 8, 8 pts, form DLDWW). Last five: H FC Bayern München 2-2 (D), A SV Werder Bremen 2-3 (L), H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-2 (D), A Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 (W), H FC Schalke 04 3-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.83 vs 1.56; home 44.4% · draw 22.5% · away 33.1%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 65.7%; both teams to score 66.2%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-16 11:17 UTC): home 2.45 · draw 3.75 · away 2.6; over/under 2.5: 1.44/2.75.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

SV 07 Elversberg

  • Form · confirmed

    SV Elversberg beat FSV Mainz 05 4-1.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    SV 07 Elversberg beat FSV Mainz 05 clearly at home in matchday 8.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Elversberg coach Vincent Wagner made five changes to the starting line-up after the DFB Cup exit, restoring Rohr, Keidel, Onyeka, Krattenmacher and Mokwa.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Elversberg beat Mainz 4-1 at home, with Keidel, Onyeka, Krattenmacher and Campbell scoring and Hollerbach replying for Mainz.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

FC Augsburg

  • Form · confirmed

    Augsburg lost 2-1 at home to Freiburg after Michael Gregoritsch had given them an early lead.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Augsburg lost 2-1 at home to Freiburg on Matchday 8 after leading at half-time through Gregoritsch's goal.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Injury · out

    Noakhai Banks is currently out with a knee injury, according to the article.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Suspension · out

    Juma Bah is suspended for two matches after a red card against Union Berlin and misses Bundesliga games, but may play in the DFB-Pokal.

    Source: Kicker ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

SV 07 Elversberg

FC Augsburg

  • Line-up · confirmed

    Alexis Claude-Maurice came on as a substitute for Robin Fellhauer for FC Augsburg.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Arijon Ibrahimovic scored a goal in the second half against Eintracht Frankfurt.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Kristijan Jakić is leaving FC Augsburg to move to Greece.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Arijon Ibrahimovic joined FC Augsburg on loan from Bayern Munich.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Fabian Rieder has moved into central midfield, which is considered his best position and where he can best show his strengths.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    FC Augsburg invested 3.5 million Euros in Hennes Behrens at the start of the season.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Augsburg made one change to their starting XI, with Mert Kömür starting in place of Arijon Ibrahimović.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Michael Gregoritsch was reacquired by Augsburg on a permanent deal.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Vincent Kompany will receive a personal award from the Bavarian Minister-President for his stance against racism.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Youngwoo Seol made his first Bundesliga start for Augsburg.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · fit

    Rodrigo Ribeiro scored for Augsburg.

    Source: The Guardian ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Michael Gregoritsch congratulated Robin Fellhauer on his record-breaking goal.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Key factors

  • Elversberg's recent home form
  • Augsburg's defensive vulnerabilities
  • Elversberg's attack rating

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