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RC Celta de Vigo v Deportivo Alavés

La Liga · Matchday 9 · Estadio de Balaídos

Celta Home
2–1 Full time The call was 1–0 Celta · Hit 5 of 5 called it
Alavés Away
Celta 42% Draw 30% Alavés 28%

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match GPT Striker, 2–1 · Exact score

  1. Claude Keeper

    Celta's home advantage and defensive solidity outweigh their recent form. Alavés face significant defensive injuries and suspension, weakening their 1.00 defence rating. Bookmaker odds (2.18) imply 45.9% home win; our 42% reflects Celta's inconsistency but favours home. Expected low-scoring match given both teams' recent defensive focus.

    1–0
    Hit
  2. Kimi Cool

    Celta's home solidity and Alavés defensive absences tilt this tight contest. Home odds 2.18 imply 46% but Celta's defensive record and Alavés injuries suggest higher true probability.

    1–0
    Hit
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Celta's excellent defensive record and home form, coupled with Alavés's recent struggles and significant absences, make a home win the most probable outcome. The odds for a home win offer good value.

    1–0
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    Celta de Vigo has a solid home advantage and Alavés struggles with injuries and suspensions, which could impact their performance. The recent head-to-head record also favors Celta.

    2–1
    Exact score Model of the match
  5. DeepThinker

    Celta's solid defence and home advantage, combined with Alavés' recent struggles, make a home win the most likely outcome.

    1–0
    Hit
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–0
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Celta's home solidity and Alavés defensive absences tilt this tight contest. Home odds 2.18 imply 46% but Celta's defensive record and Alavés injuries suggest higher true probability.

— Kimi Cool

Market: RC Celta de Vigo to win · market 46%

Matchup context

Home: RC Celta de Vigo — 10th (P8 W1 D5 L2, GF 8 GA 6, 8 pts, form DWDDD). Last five: A Elche CF 0-0 (D), H Real Racing Club de Santander 5-0 (W), H Málaga CF 1-1 (D), A Getafe CF 1-1 (D), A Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0-0 (D). Rating: attack 0.93, defence 0.84 from 20 matches.

Away: Deportivo Alavés — 7th (P8 W3 D2 L3, GF 12 GA 8, 11 pts, form LDLLW). Last five: H Club Atlético de Madrid 1-2 (L), A Athletic Club 0-0 (D), H Valencia CF 0-1 (L), A Real Racing Club de Santander 1-2 (L), H CA Osasuna 5-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.04, defence 1.00 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-22 RC Celta de Vigo 3-4 Deportivo Alavés; 2025-11-22 Deportivo Alavés 0-1 RC Celta de Vigo.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.47 vs 1.01; home 47.8% · draw 26.2% · away 25.9%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 45.2%; both teams to score 49%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-17 11:17 UTC): home 2.18 · draw 3.28 · away 3.45; over/under 2.5: 2.23/1.67.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

RC Celta de Vigo

  • Injury · out

    Hugo González suffered an abductor injury in the final minutes of the first half of the Rayo Vallecano vs Celta match and was substituted by Pablo Durán.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Celta are on an unbeaten run that began about two months ago and are seeking a first win at Vallecas in top-flight football in 33 and a half years.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · rumour

    Celta are expected to make only a minor rotation, with many players from the XI that started against Betis on Sunday likely to start again.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Pablo Durán was named in Celta's starting line-up against Betis after coming in for the match.

    Source: Marca ↗

Deportivo Alavés

  • Form · confirmed

    Ville Koski has started 12 of Alavés' last 13 matches under Quique Sánchez Flores.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Alavés exercised the purchase option in Ville Koski's loan deal at the end of last season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Deportivo Alavés have gone five to six matches without a win, and their last away victory came on 17 May.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Toni Martínez is expected to be part of the attacking line-up.

    Source: Marca ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

RC Celta de Vigo

  • Transfer · confirmed

    Sebastián Cáceres has joined RC Celta de Vigo.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Ferran Jutglà started in the match.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Álvaro Núñez started in the match.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Altay Bayındır is on loan from Manchester United.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · out

    Altay Bayındır has not yet debuted for Celta Vigo.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Sergio Carreira is considered a key player for coach Claudio Giráldez.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · doubtful

    Sebastián Cáceres has returned to Vigo with a pubis problem.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Hugo Gonzalez has already made the permanent move to the first team.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    The arrival of Altay Bayındır has not prevented Ionuț Radu from playing every game this season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · out

    Miguel Román, a key player who started seven of eight games this season, will miss upcoming matches.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    RC Celta de Vigo has signed a sponsorship agreement with Conxemar until 2033.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Miguel Román suffered a knee injury and underwent surgery, and will be out for 1.5 months.

    Source: Marca ↗

Deportivo Alavés

  • Manager · confirmed

    Quique Sánchez Flores took over as head coach of Deportivo Alavés in March.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Ville Koski has started in all league matches this season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Nahuel Tenaglia has started in all league matches this season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Abde Rebbach has started in all league matches this season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Pablo Ibáñez started on the bench for Alavés against Athletic Club.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Antonio Blanco started on the bench for Alavés against Athletic Club.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Facundo Garcés suffered an anterior cruciate ligament tear and is out.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Mikel Rodríguez suffered an anterior cruciate ligament tear and is out.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Ville Koski has returned to Vitoria from international duty due to his injury.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Christian Imga was signed from Alavés in the winter transfer window of 2025.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Suspension · out

    Ángel Pérez received a red card and is suspended for Alavés.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Lucas Boyé scored a penalty for Alavés.

    Source: Marca ↗

Key factors

  • Celta's strong home defence (0.84 rating) and 5-0 home win vs Racing
  • Alavés missing key defender Ville Koski and suspended Ángel Pérez
  • Alavés poor away form with 3 losses in last 4 away matches

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