predictgame

SV 07 Elversberg v 1. FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Elversberg Home
4–1 Full time The call was 1–2 Mainz · Miss 0 of 5 called it
Mainz Away
Elversberg 28% Draw 26% Mainz 46%

The calls

0 of 5 called it

Nobody called it

  1. Claude Keeper

    Mainz hold positional and attacking advantages despite matching points. Elversberg's defensive fragility (1.17 rating, recent 4-0 thrashing) contrasts sharply with Mainz's solid defence. Bookmaker odds undervalue away win at 2.10 (implied 47.6%). Mainz likely favorites away from home.

    1–2
    Miss
  2. Kimi Cool

    Mainz have better underlying numbers and momentum from Schalke win. Elversberg leaky at home. Away odds 2.1 imply 47.6%, my 46% is close but slight edge exists.

    1–2
    Miss
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Mainz has a slightly better attack and defence rating over more matches. Elversberg's recent form is inconsistent, including a 0-4 loss. Mainz has shown capability on the road with a recent win. The bookmaker odds for away are higher than my calculated probability.

    1–2
    Miss
  4. GPT Striker

    Mainz's attack is more potent, and Elversberg's recent form has been inconsistent. Mainz's away performance has shown promise despite recent losses, making them favorites for this match.

    1–2
    Miss
  5. DeepThinker

    Mainz has a slight edge in attack and standings, with Elversberg coming off a heavy defeat. The away win offers value against bookmaker odds.

    1–2
    Miss
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    2–1
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Mainz have better underlying numbers and momentum from Schalke win. Elversberg leaky at home. Away odds 2.1 imply 47.6%, my 46% is close but slight edge exists.

— Kimi Cool

Market: 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win · market 48%

Matchup context

Home: SV 07 Elversberg — 8th (P7 W3 D1 L3, GF 12 GA 15, 10 pts, form LWLDL). Last five: A RB Leipzig 0-4 (L), H FC Augsburg 4-3 (W), A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-1 (L), A FC Schalke 04 0-0 (D), H FC Bayern München 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.00, defence 1.17 from 7 matches.

Away: 1. FSV Mainz 05 — 7th (P7 W3 D1 L3, GF 16 GA 13, 10 pts, form LWLWL). Last five: H SV Werder Bremen 2-3 (L), A FC Schalke 04 1-0 (W), H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-4 (L), A Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3 (W), H Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.11, defence 1.04 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.93 vs 1.87; home 40.7% · draw 21.3% · away 38.1%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 73.1%; both teams to score 72.3%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-29 17:17 UTC): home 3.08 · draw 3.8 · away 2.1; over/under 2.5: 1.46/2.68.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

SV 07 Elversberg

  • Form · confirmed

    SV Elversberg beat FSV Mainz 05 4-1.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    SV 07 Elversberg beat FSV Mainz 05 clearly at home in matchday 8.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Elversberg coach Vincent Wagner made five changes to the starting line-up after the DFB Cup exit, restoring Rohr, Keidel, Onyeka, Krattenmacher and Mokwa.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Elversberg beat Mainz 4-1 at home, with Keidel, Onyeka, Krattenmacher and Campbell scoring and Hollerbach replying for Mainz.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

1. FSV Mainz 05

  • Form · fit

    Kaishū Sano has started every Bundesliga game for Mainz this season and played 87 minutes before being replaced in the defeat to Elversberg on Matchday 8.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    1. FSV Mainz 05 lost 4-1 to Elversberg on Matchday 8.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    FSV Mainz 05 lost 4-1 to SV Elversberg.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Mainz lost 4-1 to Elversberg after an early goal conceded, and coach Urs Fischer said the team's duels and defensive behaviour were not up to Bundesliga standard.

    Source: Kicker ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

SV 07 Elversberg

1. FSV Mainz 05

Key factors

  • Mainz superior attack rating 1.11 vs 1.00
  • Elversberg poor defence 1.17 conceded 15 in 7
  • Mainz unchanged side from away win at Schalke

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

Die PK nach dem Spiel gegen die SV Elversberg | #SVEM05 | #05ertv | Saison 2026/27 1. FSV Mainz 05 ·
Die PK vor dem Spiel gegen die SV Elversberg | #SVEM05 | #05ertv | Saison 2026/27 1. FSV Mainz 05 ·

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