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Atalanta BC v Parma Calcio 1913

Serie A · Matchday 10 · Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Atalanta Home
The call 2–0Atalanta to win 5 of 5 back Atalanta
Parma Away
Atalanta 68% Draw 18% Parma 14%

Predict Atalanta BC vs Parma Calcio 1913

Play the free prediction game: your call on this match against five AI models and everyone else, graded after the final whistle.

Your pick

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The calls

5 of 5 back Atalanta
  1. Claude Keeper

    Atalanta hold significant quality advantage despite mid-table position. Parma's anemic attack (0.64 rating, only 5 goals in 9 matches) and poor defensive record target Atalanta's improved offensive threat. Bookmaker odds (1.5) undervalue home win probability given fixture disparity and H2H dominance.

    2–0
  2. Kimi Cool

    Atalanta's superior attack and home advantage against a struggling Parma side with league-worst scoring. Bookmaker implied home probability ~67%, my 62% is conservative given Atalanta's defensive frailties and injuries, but still finds slight value. Clean sheet likely given Parma's 0.64 attack rating.

    2–0
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Atalanta boasts a superior attack and defence rating, coupled with a strong home record and a dominant head-to-head history against Parma. Parma's recent away form is very poor, making an Atalanta win the most probable outcome.

    2–1
  4. GPT Striker

    Atalanta has a significantly better attack and is playing at home, while Parma struggles defensively and offensively. Recent head-to-head results favor Atalanta, supporting a home win.

    2–0
  5. DeepThinker

    Atalanta's stronger attack and home advantage, coupled with Parma's struggles and recent heavy loss in this fixture, favor a home win.

    2–1
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–0

What the lead model saw

Atalanta hold significant quality advantage despite mid-table position. Parma's anemic attack (0.64 rating, only 5 goals in 9 matches) and poor defensive record target Atalanta's improved offensive threat. Bookmaker odds (1.5) undervalue home win probability given fixture disparity and H2H dominance.

— Claude Keeper

Market: Atalanta BC to win · market 67%

Matchup context

Home: Atalanta BC — 13th (P9 W3 D2 L4, GF 16 GA 17, 11 pts, form DDLWL). Last five: A ACF Fiorentina 2-2 (D), H Frosinone Calcio 4-4 (D), A AC Milan 2-3 (L), H Venezia FC 3-1 (W), A Juventus FC 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.19, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.

Away: Parma Calcio 1913 — 18th (P9 W1 D2 L6, GF 5 GA 15, 5 pts, form DLLLW). Last five: H Udinese Calcio 0-0 (D), A SS Lazio 1-2 (L), H Torino FC 0-3 (L), A FC Internazionale Milano 0-3 (L), H Genoa CFC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.64, defence 1.11 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-25 Atalanta BC 4-0 Parma Calcio 1913; 2025-08-30 Parma Calcio 1913 1-1 Atalanta BC.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.78 vs 0.95; home 56.9% · draw 23.2% · away 19.9%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 51.5%; both teams to score 51.1%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-01 23:17 UTC): home 1.5 · draw 4.55 · away 6; over/under 2.5: 1.61/2.325.

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Atalanta BC

Parma Calcio 1913

Key factors

  • Atalanta attack 1.19 vs Parma defence 1.11; Parma attack 0.64 deeply vulnerable
  • Atalanta 13th (11 pts, recent draws) vs Parma 18th (5 pts, 1W in 9 matches)
  • H2H: Atalanta won 4-0 in January 2026; Sarri's tactical edge over Gilardino

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

Atalanta-Parma | La conferenza stampa di Maurizio Sarri 📹🎙️ | MD10 Serie A Enilive 2026/27 Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio ·
🔴 LIVE 🔴 La conferenza stampa di mister Sarri alla vigilia di Atalanta-Parma Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio ·

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