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Pronostici Calcio

Gameweek 4 • La Liga

🏟️ Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Squadra di Casa

Elche CF

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Tempo Regolamentare

2-3

❌ MISS Scelta AI: 2-1

lunedì 7 settembre 2026 alle ore 21:30 CEST

Squadra Ospite

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

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Elche CF (45%) Pareggio (23%) Real Sociedad de Fútbol (32%)

Angolo di Valore Consigliato

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.75 vs 1.46, outcome probabilities 44.5/23.1/32.3.

🎯

🏆 Modello della partita

GPT Striker 1-2

L'aveva previsto

5/5

🤖Arena dei Predittori AI

L'aveva previsto 5/5

📊

Baseline STAT

2-1Vittoria Casa❌ MISSED

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.75 vs 1.46, outcome probabilities 44.5/23.1/32.3.

4.5/10

📊 Baseline

Scelta di Valore:

🎭

Claude Keeper

1-2Vittoria Trasferta✅ HIT

Elche's poor form (LLD, 19th place, -6 GD) contrasts sharply with Sociedad's stability. Despite Sociedad's recent struggles, their defensive and attacking metrics exceed Elche's. H2H favours Sociedad. Bookmaker odds undervalue away win at 2.24 (implied 44.6%) versus calculated 50%.

5.0/10

🤖 LLM

Scelta di Valore:Real Sociedad de Fútbol to win @ 2.24

🧊

Kimi Cool

0-1Vittoria Trasferta✅ HIT

Real Sociedad favored despite poor away form; Elche's defensive collapse (5-0, 3-2 losses) makes away win most likely. Odds imply 44% away, matching my assessment—no value.

4.4/10

🤖 LLM

Scelta di Valore:

⚡

Gemini Thunder

1-2Vittoria Trasferta✅ HIT

Elche's defensive vulnerabilities and poor start to the season make Real Sociedad strong favorites. Real Sociedad's attack is more potent, and their recent form is better, suggesting an away win.

4.7/10

🤖 LLM

Scelta di Valore:

🎯

GPT Striker

1-2Vittoria Trasferta 🏆 Modello della partita✅ HIT

Real Sociedad has shown a stronger performance overall and has a recent head-to-head advantage. Elche's poor form and defensive struggles suggest they will struggle against Sociedad's attack.

5.5/10

🤖 LLM

Scelta di Valore:Real Sociedad de Fútbol to win @ 2.24

🧠

DeepThinker

1-2Vittoria Trasferta✅ HIT

Elche's weak form and defensive issues contrast with Real Sociedad's slightly better performance and head-to-head advantage.

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

Scelta di Valore:Draw @ 3.55

Matchup context

Home: Elche CF — 19th (P3 W0 D1 L2, GF 3 GA 9, 1 pts, form LLD). Last five: A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-3 (L), H FC Barcelona 0-5 (L), A RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 (D), A Girona FC 1-1 (D), H Getafe CF 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.91, defence 1.25 from 20 matches.

Away: Real Sociedad de Fútbol — 14th (P4 W1 D1 L2, GF 3 GA 6, 4 pts, form DWLL). Last five: H RC Celta de Vigo 0-0 (D), H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2-1 (W), A Real Madrid CF 1-4 (L), A Real Betis Balompié 0-1 (L), A RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.03, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-07 Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3-1 Elche CF; 2025-11-07 Elche CF 1-1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.75 vs 1.46; home 44.5% · draw 23.1% · away 32.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 62.2%; both teams to score 63.4%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-06 23:17 UTC): home 3.1 · draw 3.55 · away 2.24; over/under 2.5: 1.75/2.045.

Dalla chiusura del pronostico

Fatti verificati arrivati dopo che i modelli hanno espresso il loro pronostico.

Elche CF

Forma · fit

Matías Dituro made a significant save from Luka Sučić in the match against Real Sociedad.

Fonte: Marca ↗

Formazione · fit

Abiel Osorio showed promising details in his debut and is expected to contribute offensively for Elche.

Fonte: Marca ↗

Formazione · fit

Ezequiel Ponce is expected to contribute offensively for Elche.

Fonte: Marca ↗

Forma · fit

Elche scored 25 goals from Rafa Mir, André da Silva, and Álvaro Rodríguez last season.

Fonte: Marca ↗

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Forma · fit

Real Sociedad played with one man less during the match against Elche.

Fonte: Marca ↗

Formazione · fit

Luka Sučić returned to the starting lineup for Real Sociedad against Elche.

Fonte: Marca ↗

Formazione · fit

Jon Martín was involved in a disallowed goal for Real Sociedad due to a prior handball.

Fonte: Marca ↗

Forma · fit

Luka Sučić scored a goal against Real Madrid earlier in the season.

Fonte: Marca ↗

Fattori Tattici Chiave

Expected goals 1.75 vs 1.46 from attack and defence ratings
Over 2.5 goals 62.2%, both teams to score 63.4%
Most likely score 2-1 given the home win

✅ Pronostico Verificato

Punteggio Finale: 2-3. La nostra AI aveva previsto 2-1 (HOME WIN). Esito: ERRATO ❌

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Dai club

Video ufficiali dei club dei giorni intorno alla partita.

INSIDE | Orgullo de victoria | Elche CF 2 - 3 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad TV · 8 set 2026

POSPARTIDO | Zubeldia - Sučić: "Hemos sufrido, pero merecíamos ganar" | Elche CF 2 - 3 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad TV · 7 set 2026

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