Matchup context
Home: Udinese Calcio — 13th (P4 W1 D1 L2, GF 8 GA 10, 4 pts, form LLWD). Last five: A FC Internazionale Milano 3-5 (L), H SS Lazio 1-2 (L), A AC Monza 3-2 (W), H Como 1907 1-1 (D), A SSC Napoli 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.14, defence 1.09 from 20 matches.
Away: Cagliari Calcio — 5th (P4 W3 D0 L1, GF 4 GA 2, 9 pts, form WWLW). Last five: A Atalanta BC 2-1 (W), H US Lecce 1-0 (W), H FC Internazionale Milano 0-1 (L), A Parma Calcio 1913 1-0 (W), A AC Milan 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.88, defence 0.92 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-09 Cagliari Calcio 0-2 Udinese Calcio; 2025-10-05 Udinese Calcio 1-1 Cagliari Calcio.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.36 vs 1.15; home 41.7% · draw 26.8% · away 31.6%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 45.8%; both teams to score 50.7%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 2.25 · draw 3.25 · away 3.39; over/under 2.5: 2.15/1.69.