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Football Predictions

Gameweek 5 • Serie A

🏟️ Dacia Arena

Udinese Calcio

Home Club

Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 CEST

2-1

Predicted Outcome

Home Win (4.5/10)

Cagliari Calcio

Away Club

Udinese Calcio (45%) Draw (30%) Cagliari Calcio (25%)

Recommended Value Angle

Udinese Calcio to win @ 2.25

Udinese has a slight edge at home and has performed better in recent encounters against Cagliari, despite their current form. Cagliari's injuries may impact their performance.

🤖AI Predictor Arena

✓ 5/5 CONSENSUS

📊

Baseline STAT

1-0Home Win

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.36 vs 1.15, outcome probabilities 41.7/26.8/31.6.

4.2/10

📊 Baseline

Value Pick:

🎭

Claude Keeper

1-0Home Win

Cagliari's superior league position (5th vs 13th) and form offset by significant attacking injuries. Udinese's home record and Cagliari's depleted forwards suggest competitive match. Bookmaker odds undervalue home side given context. Modest goal expectation from both teams' defensive ratings.

4.2/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Udinese Calcio to win @ 2.25

🧊

Kimi Cool

2-1Home Win

Udinese's superior attack rating and Cagliari's extensive injury list (4 attackers out) offset Cagliari's strong form. Home win offers value at 2.25 vs 42% probability (implied 44%).

4.2/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Udinese Calcio to win @ 2.25

⚡

Gemini Thunder

2-1Home Win

Udinese has a stronger attack and a good H2H record. Cagliari is missing several key players due to injury, which will likely impact their performance despite their recent form.

4.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Udinese Calcio to win @ 2.25

🎯

GPT Striker

2-1Home Win

Udinese has a slight edge at home and has performed better in recent encounters against Cagliari, despite their current form. Cagliari's injuries may impact their performance.

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Udinese Calcio to win @ 2.25

🧠

DeepThinker

1-0Home Win

Udinese has a stronger attack and home advantage, while Cagliari faces injury setbacks. Recent H2H shows Udinese's capability to win or draw.

4.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Udinese Calcio to win @ 2.25

Matchup context

Home: Udinese Calcio — 13th (P4 W1 D1 L2, GF 8 GA 10, 4 pts, form LLWD). Last five: A FC Internazionale Milano 3-5 (L), H SS Lazio 1-2 (L), A AC Monza 3-2 (W), H Como 1907 1-1 (D), A SSC Napoli 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.14, defence 1.09 from 20 matches.

Away: Cagliari Calcio — 5th (P4 W3 D0 L1, GF 4 GA 2, 9 pts, form WWLW). Last five: A Atalanta BC 2-1 (W), H US Lecce 1-0 (W), H FC Internazionale Milano 0-1 (L), A Parma Calcio 1913 1-0 (W), A AC Milan 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.88, defence 0.92 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-09 Cagliari Calcio 0-2 Udinese Calcio; 2025-10-05 Udinese Calcio 1-1 Cagliari Calcio.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.36 vs 1.15; home 41.7% · draw 26.8% · away 31.6%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 45.8%; both teams to score 50.7%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 2.25 · draw 3.25 · away 3.39; over/under 2.5: 2.15/1.69.

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Udinese Calcio

Line-up · fit

Jesper Karlstrom scored for Udinese.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Injury · fit

Jesper Karlström scored a goal.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Injury · out

Jakub Piotrowski needs heart surgery to correct a benign arrhythmia and will be out of action for around two months.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Injury · out

Nicolò Zaniolo was missing due to injury for Udinese.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Injury · out

Oumar Solet was missing due to injury for Udinese.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Line-up · fit

Jurgen Ekkelenkamp was involved in a play leading to a goal against Inter.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Line-up · fit

Keinan Davis was involved in a play leading to a goal against Inter.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Cagliari Calcio

Line-up · fit

Jacopo Fazzini provided the assist for Daniel Maldini's goal.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Line-up · fit

Elia Caprile was in goal for Cagliari.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Line-up · fit

Mattia Felici was involved in an attacking play for Cagliari.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Andrea Belotti's contract with Cagliari was not renewed.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Injury · out

Andrea Belotti suffered a serious knee injury requiring surgery for an anterior cruciate ligament rupture during his time at Cagliari.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Return · fit

Yael Trepy has been given the all clear to resume training.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Injury · out

Yael Trepy is unavailable for Cagliari.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Manager · confirmed

Fabio Pisacane is the current coach of Cagliari.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Harry Winks has made six appearances for Cagliari between Serie A and Coppa Italia.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Injury · out

Mattia Felici is out with an anterior cruciate ligament tear.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Injury · out

Riyad Idrissi is out of action.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Injury · out

M'Bala N'Zola is out of action.

Source: Football Italia ↗

Key Tactical Factors

Cagliari's injury issues
Udinese's home advantage
Recent head-to-head performance favoring Udinese

Public Audit Promise

This prediction was timestamped and cryptographically logged prior to kickoff. Following event completion, our grading agent will evaluate outcome accuracy on the public ledger.

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From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

Conferenza stampa pre-partita di mister Runjaic | Udinese-Cagliari Udinese Calcio · 18 Sept 2026

Union Brescia 4-2 Udinese | Highlights | Primavera 2 Girone A 2026/27 Udinese Calcio · 17 Sept 2026

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