Matchup context
Home: Borussia Dortmund — 9th (P0 W0 D0 L0, GF 0 GA 0, 0 pts). Last five: A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 (W), H Hamburger SV 2-0 (W), A SV Werder Bremen 2-0 (W), H Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 (W), A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.07, defence 1.11 from 10 matches.
Away: Villarreal CF — 10th (P0 W0 D0 L0, GF 0 GA 0, 0 pts). Last five: H RC Deportivo La Coruña 2-3 (L), A Deportivo Alavés 0-1 (L), A Club Atlético de Madrid 2-2 (D), A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-2 (D), H Club Atlético de Madrid 5-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.25, defence 1.10 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 1): 2025-11-25 Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Villarreal CF.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1 (domestic ratings)): expected goals 2.12 vs 1.83; home 45.3% · draw 20.7% · away 34.1%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 75.5%; both teams to score 73.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-07 23:17 UTC): home 1.78 · draw 4.15 · away 4.1; over/under 2.5: 1.46/2.7.