Borussia Dortmund

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 2.12 vs 1.83, outcome probabilities 45.3/20.7/34.1.

Dortmund are clear favorites given exceptional recent form, home advantage, and dominant head-to-head record. Villarreal's defensive instability and poor La Liga start support this view. Bookmaker odds undervalue Dortmund at 1.78 (56% implied) versus our 58% assessment. Injury concerns for Villarreal's defense strengthen the case.

Dortmund's strong home form, recent comeback wins, and dominant 4-0 H2H victory outweigh Villarreal's poor start. Home odds 1.78 imply 56%, my 58% offers slight value.

Dortmund are in excellent form, winning their last four matches, including a comeback victory. Villarreal are struggling with two recent losses. Dortmund also secured a dominant 4-0 win in their last encounter, making them strong favorites at home.

Borussia Dortmund has shown strong attacking form and has a solid head-to-head record against Villarreal, who are struggling. The absence of key Villarreal players adds to Dortmund's advantage.

Dortmund's strong Bundesliga form and home advantage, combined with Villarreal's shaky start to La Liga, favor the hosts. The 4-0 H2H win adds confidence.