Matchup context
Home: Newcastle United FC — 11th (P6 W2 D2 L2, GF 10 GA 13, 8 pts, form LWLDW). Last five: A Coventry City FC 1-4 (L), H Hull City AFC 2-1 (W), A Leeds United FC 1-4 (L), H AFC Bournemouth 2-2 (D), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.06, defence 1.22 from 20 matches.
Away: Aston Villa FC — 16th (P6 W1 D2 L3, GF 6 GA 11, 5 pts, form DWLDL). Last five: H Brentford FC 2-2 (D), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 3-2 (W), H Nottingham Forest FC 1-2 (L), A Hull City AFC 0-0 (D), H Arsenal FC 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.01, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-25 Newcastle United FC 0-2 Aston Villa FC; 2025-08-16 Aston Villa FC 0-0 Newcastle United FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.91 vs 1.54; home 46.6% · draw 22.1% · away 31.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 66.9%; both teams to score 66.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-16 17:17 UTC): home 2.245 · draw 3.7 · away 3; over/under 2.5: 1.605/2.265.