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Newcastle United FC v Aston Villa FC

Premier League · Matchday 7 · St. James' Park

Newcastle Home
0–1 Full time The call was 2–1 Newcastle · Miss 0 of 5 called it
Aston Villa Away
Newcastle 45% Draw 30% Aston Villa 25%

The calls

0 of 5 called it

Nobody called it

  1. Claude Keeper

    Newcastle's home advantage and superior league position outweigh recent poor form (1-4 loss to Coventry). Villa's injury crisis and weak attack (6 GF in 6 matches) limit their threat. Bookmaker odds undervalue Newcastle at 2.245 (implied 44.5%) versus calculated 42% probability, but close. Defensive frailties suggest low-scoring outcome.

    1–0
    Miss
  2. Kimi Cool
    No answer
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Newcastle has a better league position and attack rating, plus home advantage. Aston Villa is hampered by several injuries, making a home win more likely. The odds for home are undervalued.

    2–1
    Miss
  4. GPT Striker

    Newcastle has shown better form recently and plays at home, while Aston Villa struggles with injuries and has a poor away record. This gives Newcastle a slight edge.

    2–1
    Miss
  5. DeepThinker

    Newcastle has shown better form at home recently, while Aston Villa faces multiple injuries. The head-to-head record is balanced, but Newcastle's home advantage tips the scale.

    2–1
    Miss
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    2–1
    Miss

What the lead model saw

Newcastle has shown better form at home recently, while Aston Villa faces multiple injuries. The head-to-head record is balanced, but Newcastle's home advantage tips the scale.

— DeepThinker

Market: Newcastle United FC to win · market 45%

Matchup context

Home: Newcastle United FC — 11th (P6 W2 D2 L2, GF 10 GA 13, 8 pts, form LWLDW). Last five: A Coventry City FC 1-4 (L), H Hull City AFC 2-1 (W), A Leeds United FC 1-4 (L), H AFC Bournemouth 2-2 (D), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.06, defence 1.22 from 20 matches.

Away: Aston Villa FC — 16th (P6 W1 D2 L3, GF 6 GA 11, 5 pts, form DWLDL). Last five: H Brentford FC 2-2 (D), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 3-2 (W), H Nottingham Forest FC 1-2 (L), A Hull City AFC 0-0 (D), H Arsenal FC 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.01, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-25 Newcastle United FC 0-2 Aston Villa FC; 2025-08-16 Aston Villa FC 0-0 Newcastle United FC.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.91 vs 1.54; home 46.6% · draw 22.1% · away 31.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 66.9%; both teams to score 66.8%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-16 17:17 UTC): home 2.245 · draw 3.7 · away 3; over/under 2.5: 1.605/2.265.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Newcastle United FC

  • Form · confirmed

    Newcastle's performances are described as consistently inconsistent, with a supporter citing a lack of clinical finishing and a shortage of attacking options up front.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Newcastle United lost 3-1 at Everton in the Carabao Cup fourth round, with head coach Matthias Jaissle citing a lack of clinical finishing and individual mistakes.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Newcastle lost 3-1 at home to Everton in the Carabao Cup fourth round, with Dan Burn scoring a late consolation.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Newcastle United recorded a victory over Crystal Palace, according to a fan's comments in the article.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

Aston Villa FC

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Newcastle United FC

Aston Villa FC

Key factors

  • Newcastle's recent home form
  • Aston Villa's injury issues
  • Head-to-head record

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