Matchup context
Home: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — 14th (P6 W2 D0 L4, GF 11 GA 14, 6 pts, form WLLWL). Last five: A Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 (W), H Hamburger SV 2-3 (L), A SC Paderborn 07 1-3 (L), H VfB Stuttgart 2-1 (W), H Borussia Dortmund 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.00, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.
Away: Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 4th (P6 W4 D1 L1, GF 16 GA 9, 13 pts, form WWWDW). Last five: H SC Freiburg 2-1 (W), A 1. FSV Mainz 05 4-3 (W), H RB Leipzig 2-0 (W), A FC Augsburg 2-2 (D), H 1. FC Union Berlin 4-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.28, defence 0.93 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-17 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen; 2025-08-23 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.74 vs 2.26; home 30% · draw 20.1% · away 49.9%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 76.1%; both teams to score 73.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC): home 2.725 · draw 3.925 · away 2.29; over/under 2.5: 1.4/2.95.