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TSG 1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · PreZero Arena

Hoffenheim Home
3–0 Full time The call was 1–2 Leverkusen · Miss 0 of 5 called it
Leverkusen Away
Hoffenheim 30% Draw 25% Leverkusen 45%

The calls

0 of 5 called it

Nobody called it

  1. Claude Keeper

    Leverkusen's superior form, position, and attacking rating (1.28) justify favouritism despite Hoffenheim's recent H2H wins. Bookmaker odds imply 43.6% away win; our 50% reflects Leverkusen's clear league advantage and defensive solidity. Recent head-to-head results temper confidence but don't override current form gap.

    1–2
    Miss
  2. Kimi Cool

    Leverkusen's stronger ratings, better form, and Hoffenheim's defensive frailty and injuries justify away win probability above implied 43.7%.

    1–2
    Miss
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Leverkusen is in excellent form with a strong attack and solid defense, while Hoffenheim has been inconsistent and has key injuries. Despite Hoffenheim's recent H2H wins, Leverkusen's current momentum and ratings suggest an away victory.

    1–2
    Miss
  4. GPT Striker

    Leverkusen's strong form and attack suggest they are likely to win against Hoffenheim, who have struggled defensively. Recent head-to-head results favor Hoffenheim, but current form indicates an away victory.

    1–2
    Miss
  5. DeepThinker

    Leverkusen's better form and attacking strength, combined with Hoffenheim's defensive vulnerabilities, make the away win the most likely outcome.

    1–2
    Miss
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–2
    Miss

What the lead model saw

Leverkusen's better form and attacking strength, combined with Hoffenheim's defensive vulnerabilities, make the away win the most likely outcome.

— DeepThinker

Market: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win · market 44%

Matchup context

Home: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — 14th (P6 W2 D0 L4, GF 11 GA 14, 6 pts, form WLLWL). Last five: A Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 (W), H Hamburger SV 2-3 (L), A SC Paderborn 07 1-3 (L), H VfB Stuttgart 2-1 (W), H Borussia Dortmund 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.00, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.

Away: Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 4th (P6 W4 D1 L1, GF 16 GA 9, 13 pts, form WWWDW). Last five: H SC Freiburg 2-1 (W), A 1. FSV Mainz 05 4-3 (W), H RB Leipzig 2-0 (W), A FC Augsburg 2-2 (D), H 1. FC Union Berlin 4-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.28, defence 0.93 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-17 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen; 2025-08-23 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.74 vs 2.26; home 30% · draw 20.1% · away 49.9%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 76.1%; both teams to score 73.8%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC): home 2.725 · draw 3.925 · away 2.29; over/under 2.5: 1.4/2.95.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

  • Injury · out

    According to kicker research, Hoffenheim's injury situation has worsened beyond what was previously known, with the centre-back position particularly affected; the players concerned are not named in the teaser.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Hoffenheim lost 2-0 at Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga after losing on penalties to Holstein Kiel in the DFB Cup.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Hoffenheim made six changes for the Bremen match, restoring Fisnik Asllani and starting Oliver Baumann, Ozan Kabak, Mats Rots, Natnael Abraha and Adam Daghim.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Injury · out

    Valentin Gendrey broke his fibula in the cup elimination at Kiel and will be out for a long time.

    Source: Kicker ↗

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

  • Return · fit

    Montrell Culbreath was on the bench for Leverkusen against Stuttgart on Matchday 8 after recovering from injury, but did not play.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Bayer Leverkusen lost 4-2 to VfB Stuttgart on Matchday 8.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Malik Tillman came off the bench with about 15 minutes left in Leverkusen's Matchday 8 defeat to Stuttgart and has 2 starts in 7 appearances this season.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Leverkusen lost 4-2 at home to Stuttgart, their first home defeat of the season.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Key factors

  • Leverkusen's strong form (WWWDW)
  • Hoffenheim's inconsistent defence (GA 14 in 6 matches)
  • Leverkusen's superior attack (GF 16 in 6 matches)

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