Matchup context
Home: US Sassuolo Calcio — 14th (P8 W2 D2 L4, GF 12 GA 16, 8 pts, form LLDLW). Last five: A Como 1907 0-2 (L), A Frosinone Calcio 2-4 (L), H AC Milan 1-1 (D), A AC Monza 1-2 (L), H Juventus FC 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.03, defence 1.24 from 20 matches.
Away: SS Lazio — 2nd (P8 W7 D1 L0, GF 16 GA 5, 22 pts, form WWWWD). Last five: H Parma Calcio 1913 2-1 (W), A Juventus FC 3-0 (W), H AC Monza 3-1 (W), A Venezia FC 2-0 (W), H AC Milan 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 1.25, defence 0.83 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-09 SS Lazio 2-1 US Sassuolo Calcio; 2025-09-14 US Sassuolo Calcio 1-0 SS Lazio.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.13 vs 1.86; home 23% · draw 22.6% · away 54.4%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 57.6%; both teams to score 57.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-26 17:17 UTC): home 3.3 · draw 3.55 · away 2.15; over/under 2.5: 1.68/2.15.