Matchup context
Home: Everton FC — 8th (P2 W1 D1 L0, GF 3 GA 1, 4 pts, form DW). Last five: A AFC Bournemouth 1-1 (D), H Crystal Palace FC 2-0 (W), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-1 (L), H Sunderland AFC 1-3 (L), A Crystal Palace FC 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 1.02 from 20 matches.
Away: Manchester United FC — 11th (P2 W1 D0 L1, GF 5 GA 4, 3 pts, form WL). Last five: H Ipswich Town FC 5-2 (W), A Hull City AFC 0-2 (L), A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3-0 (W), H Nottingham Forest FC 3-2 (W), A Sunderland AFC 0-0 (D). Rating: attack 1.34, defence 0.93 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-23 Everton FC 0-1 Manchester United FC; 2025-11-24 Manchester United FC 0-1 Everton FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.46 vs 1.67; home 33.5% · draw 23.6% · away 42.9%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 60.4%; both teams to score 62.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-05 12:55 UTC): home 3.35 · draw 3.6 · away 2.14; over/under 2.5: 1.68/2.18.