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Singapore Grand Prix 2026: Race Prediction & Podium Forecast

Formula 1 World Championship · Round 17 · Marina Bay Street Circuit

RBR Constructor
P1 VER · P2 LEC · P3 ANT Full time The call was P1 VER · P2 ANT · P3 LEC RBR · Hit 5 of 5 called it
MER Rival

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match DeepThinker, P1 VER · P2 LEC · P3 HAM

  1. Claude Keeper

    Verstappen's pole, sprint win, and qualifying dominance make him clear favourite. Hamilton's sprint victory from P3 shows exceptional race craft on Singapore's demanding circuit. Leclerc's consistent P2 qualifying and P3 sprint finish suggests podium lock-in. Norris and Piastri compromised by grid positions and sprint underperformance.

    P1 VER · P2 HAM · P3 LEC
    Hit
  2. Kimi Cool

    Verstappen's pole, sprint win, and strong race pace make him favorite. Ferrari's Leclerc and Hamilton qualified 2nd-3rd and showed podium sprint pace. Antonelli's new spec car and P4 grid offer outside chance. Russell's penalty and old spec car limit podium hopes despite Mercedes dominance in standings.

    P1 VER · P2 LEC · P3 HAM
    Hit
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Verstappen's pole and sprint win show strong form. Hamilton and Leclerc are close in qualifying and sprint. Antonelli's new spec car and strong qualifying make him a contender. Russell's grid penalty hurts his chances.

    P1 VER · P2 HAM · P3 LEC
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    Verstappen's pole and sprint win position him as the favorite, while Hamilton's practice pace and Leclerc's close qualifying time suggest a competitive race for the podium.

    P1 VER · P2 HAM · P3 LEC
    Hit
  5. DeepThinker

    Verstappen has pole, fastest qualifying, and sprint win. Leclerc and Hamilton are close in qualifying and sprint. Antonelli shows promise but lacks experience.

    P1 VER · P2 LEC · P3 HAM
    Hit Model of the match
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    P1 VER · P2 ANT · P3 LEC
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Grid-aware baseline (form over the last 5 rounds times the grid-slot win prior): P1 VER · P2 ANT · P3 LEC.

— Baseline

Race context

Alpine F1 Team — P6, 77 pts, 0 wins. GAS (P7, P10); COL (P7, P9).

Aston Martin — P10, 7 pts, 0 wins. ALO (P8, P9); STR (no recent finishes).

Audi — P8, 19 pts, 0 wins. BOR (no recent finishes); HUL (P10, P8).

Cadillac F1 Team — P11, 0 pts, 0 wins. BOT (no recent finishes); PER (no recent finishes).

Ferrari — P2, 418 pts, 2 wins. HAM (P3, P6, P6, P4); LEC (P4, P4, P4, P5).

Haas F1 Team — P7, 30 pts, 0 wins. BEA (P9); OCO (P8).

McLaren — P3, 315 pts, 2 wins. NOR (P9, P3, P4, P1); PIA (P6, P8, P5, P6).

Mercedes — P1, 561 pts, 11 wins. ANT (P2, P5, P1, P1, P2); RUS (P1, P5, P2, P3).

RB F1 Team — P5, 90 pts, 0 wins. LAW (P7, P6, P7); LIN (P10, P7, P9, P8); TSU (P10).

Red Bull — P4, 303 pts, 1 wins. VER (P1, P2, P2, P3); HAD (P5, P3); LAW (P7, P6, P7).

Williams — P9, 12 pts, 0 wins. SAI (P10); ALB (no recent finishes).

Points-share baseline (f1-grid-v1): ANT 16.1% · LIN 1% · HAD 1.6% · HAM 10.8% · LAW 1.5%.

Starting grid

Derived from qualifying and race-control penalties; the official grid may differ.

PosDriverTeamQ3GapNotes
P1 Max Verstappen VER Red Bull 91.373 —
P2 Charles Leclerc LEC Ferrari 91.427 +0.054
P3 Lewis Hamilton HAM Ferrari 91.496 +0.123
P4 Andrea Kimi Antonelli ANT Mercedes 91.562 +0.189
P5 Lando Norris NOR McLaren 91.712 +0.339
P6 George Russell RUS Mercedes 91.747 +0.374
P7 Oscar Piastri PIA McLaren 91.860 +0.487
P8 Pierre Gasly GAS Alpine F1 Team 92.225 +0.852
P9 Liam Lawson LAW Red Bull 92.369 +0.996
P10 Arvid Lindblad LIN RB F1 Team 92.781 +1.408
P11 Nico Hülkenberg HUL Audi — +1.255
P12 Oliver Bearman BEA Haas F1 Team — +1.379
P13 Esteban Ocon OCO Haas F1 Team — +1.794
P14 Carlos Sainz SAI Williams — +1.997
P15 Gabriel Bortoleto BOR Audi — +2.129
P16 Franco Colapinto COL Alpine F1 Team — +2.258
P17 Fernando Alonso ALO Aston Martin — +1.794
P18 Alexander Albon ALB Williams — +1.860
P19 Lance Stroll STR Aston Martin — +2.517
P20 Sergio Pérez PER Cadillac F1 Team — +2.694
P21 Valtteri Bottas BOT Cadillac F1 Team — +3.555

How the race unfolded

Fastest lap
Charles Leclerc · 95.202s (L41)
Safety cars
0 + 2 virtual
Pit stops
25 · 19 classified
Air / track
30.3°C / 42.7°C
Strategies of the podium
  • Max Verstappen soft (32) → medium (30)
  • Charles Leclerc soft (24) → medium (15) → soft (23)
  • Andrea Kimi Antonelli soft (23) → medium (16) → soft (23)

Podium forecast

PredictorP1P2P3Win probability
BaselineStatistics, not an AI VERANTLEC 37.6%
Claude Keeper VERHAMLEC 42%
Kimi Cool VERLECHAM 35%
Gemini Thunder VERHAMLEC 40%
GPT Striker VERHAMLEC 45%
DeepThinker VERLECHAM 50%

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Aston Martin

  • Form · confirmed

    Fernando Alonso was hit by Alexander Albon on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin, which according to Mike Krack cost him a considerable amount of downforce.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Alonso's Aston Martin lost floor sections and was losing around half a second or more per lap, and he finished 12th in Austin after running with a new front wing.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Upgrade · confirmed

    Honda is preparing countermeasures through software and settings to improve turbo lag control.

    Source: Autosport ↗

Audi

  • Form · confirmed

    Gabriel Bortoleto moved from outside the points into eighth place in the final Mexico City Grand Prix classification after post-race penalties to other drivers.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Freddie Slater will step up to Formula 2 with Invicta next season.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Line-up · out

    Freddie Slater will replace Gabriel Bortoleto in Free Practice 1 in Brazil.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Freddie Slater will have a second outing in Sao Paulo a week after Mexico.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

Ferrari

  • Form · confirmed

    Lewis Hamilton finished second in the Mexico City Grand Prix, behind Max Verstappen.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Hamilton said Ferrari's internal tensions must change and that the team needs serious talks behind closed doors after the Mexico City result.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Ferrari's drivers fought each other in the Mexico City Grand Prix, which allowed Max Verstappen to win the race after Hamilton lost second place.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Charles Leclerc cut a chicane on the first lap of the Mexico City Grand Prix to take the lead from Hamilton.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

Haas F1 Team

McLaren

  • Suspension · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri received a 10-second post-race penalty for the collision with Arvid Lindblad at the Mexico Grand Prix, dropping him from seventh to outside the points-scoring positions.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri qualified 12th at the Mexico Grand Prix, ending his streak of 60 consecutive Q3 appearances including sprints.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Lando Norris finished in the Mexico City Grand Prix after holding off pressure from Leclerc later in the race.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri finished in Mexico City, with his car damaged in a collision with Arvid Lindblad that caused a safety car.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

Mercedes

  • Form · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Formula 1 world championship at 20 years old, according to the article.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Mexico City Grand Prix, clinching his first world championship and becoming the youngest F1 world champion.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    George Russell has slipped behind Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton in the championship points table.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    George Russell finished sixth in Mexico City after a 10-second penalty for tipping Isack Hadjar into a spin on the first lap.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗

Red Bull

  • Form · confirmed

    Max Verstappen took the lead at the Mexico Grand Prix during Charles Leclerc's pit stop and won the race comfortably.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Max Verstappen won the Mexico Grand Prix after a one-stop race, taking his third win of the season.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Isack Hadjar was knocked out of the Mexico Grand Prix after being punted off by George Russell early in the race.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Liam Lawson finished inside the top 10 in Mexico.

    Source: Autosport ↗

Williams

  • Form · confirmed

    Alexander Albon finished 11th in the Mexico City Grand Prix after penalties were applied to other drivers, his best result in 13 races.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Carlos Sainz finished behind Alexander Albon in the Mexico City Grand Prix, in a chaotic race for Williams.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Alexander Albon made contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin.

    Source: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Alexander Albon ran the United States Grand Prix with a broken front wing after the contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap.

    Source: Autosport ↗

Key factors

  • Weighted points share over the last 5 rounds
  • Starting grid: each slot's historical win rate as a prior
  • Favourite VER at 37.6%

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