Milan arrive unbeaten and scoring freely
AC Milan host Bologna at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on 28 October (17:30 UTC) in round nine of Serie A. Ruben Amorim’s side sit fifth with 18 points from eight games. They have won five, drawn three and lost none, and their record of 16 goals scored and seven conceded is the sharper end of the contest.
The recent run reads WWDWD. Milan won 2-0 at Udinese on 25 October and beat Atalanta 3-2 at home a week earlier. Before that came a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo and a 3-0 home win over Lecce. The 2-2 draw at Lazio on 12 September is the other result in the five-match sample. The attack is the stronger unit on the site’s ratings (1.17 against Bologna’s 0.94), and the defence rates better too (0.89 against 0.98, where lower is tighter).
Selection looks largely settled. [1] reports that Christian Pulisic made his first league start in mid-September after recovering from a lower-leg microfracture suffered at the World Cup. [2] notes that Strahinja Pavlović has played every minute of the season so far. The one listed absentee is Pervis Estupiñán, [3] on 10 October. Luka Modrić also made an impact off the bench against Sassuolo, [4].
Bologna short-handed and in transition
Bologna are 13th with eight points from eight games (two wins, two draws, four defeats) and a goal difference of minus two. Their form line is WLWDL. They won 2-0 at Cagliari on 24 October, lost 3-1 at home to Inter a week earlier, and won 2-1 at Lecce on 11 October. A 1-1 draw with Torino and a 1-0 defeat at Napoli complete the sample.
The injury list is the main concern. After the Cagliari game, [5] listed Emil Holm, Riccardo Orsolini and Roberto Piccoli as out with muscular strains. Samuel Mbangula, who joined the club in September, was [6]. Together these absences remove a lot of Bologna’s attacking depth against a Milan side that concedes few goals.
The dugout also needs a note. The context sheet lists Domenico Tedesco as coach, but [7] that Bologna have appointed Raffaele Palladino. Either way, there has been recent upheaval. Some stability remains on the pitch: captain Lewis Ferguson has [8], and Matteo Darmian started on his first appearance in the squad against Lecce.
What the numbers and the models say
The Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, projects expected goals of 1.54 for Milan and 1.02 for Bologna. That gives outcome probabilities of 49.3% home, 25.6% draw and 25.1% away, with 1-0 as the most likely single scoreline. It puts both teams scoring at 50.1% and more than 2.5 goals at 47.0%, so a tight, low-scoring game is a realistic outcome.
The five AI models are more confident than the baseline and all pick a home win:
- Claude Keeper: 2-0, with 71% home.
- GPT Striker: 2-0, with 70% home.
- Kimi Cool: 2-0, with 58% home.
- Gemini Thunder: 2-1, with 60% home.
- DeepThinker: 2-1, with 60% home.
The average home probability is about 64%. The models cite Milan’s unbeaten record, the ratings gap, Bologna’s injuries and the head-to-head history. Milan won 1-0 at home in September 2025 and 3-0 at Bologna in February 2026, so the models have a real record behind them. The disagreement is about whether Bologna score. Gemini and DeepThinker give them a goal, while the other three expect a clean sheet.
What it means
For Milan, the table tells a simple story. Eighteen points from eight games with no defeats puts them in the European places. A home win over a side in the lower half would keep that run going, though the three draws show they can drop points when games stay tight. Their goals-against column (seven) is the sturdiest part of the record, and it is the part Bologna’s weakened attack must break.
For Bologna, the question is whether they can repeat the Cagliari result with a thinner squad. They have scored only eight goals in eight games, and three of the forwards and wide players listed out are exactly the ones who would supply them. Their last two away trips brought a win at Lecce and a win at Cagliari, which keeps a point from the Meazza within reach. The most likely outcome is still a controlled home win, which is where the baseline and every model agree.
Sources
- The Guardian: Christian Pulisic is no longer a focal point for the US or Milan – and that’s OK theguardian.com ↩
- Football Italia: Milan have agreement in place for long-term Pavlovic contract extension football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Milan owner Cardinale dons ‘Make Milan Great Again’ cap football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Amorim: ‘Milan cannot concede that goal, sad for Gabbia injury’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Cagliari 0-2 Bologna: Sardinian bubble has burst football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Lecce 1-2 Bologna: First victory for Palladino football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A line-ups: Bologna vs. Inter football-italia.net ↩
- Sky Sports: Ferguson: Rangers dream always in back of my mind skysports.com ↩
