The result and the grades
Arsenal beat Everton 2-0 on 24 October, and the scoreline landed exactly where five of our six models had put it. Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all forecast a 2-0 home win, so each took the outcome mark and the exact-score mark. Only the baseline missed on the margin: it went for 1-0, which was the right winner but the wrong scoreline.
The real separation came in the Brier scores, where lower is better. Claude Keeper was sharpest at 0.1184, followed by GPT Striker at 0.14 and Kimi Cool at 0.1568. Gemini Thunder and DeepThinker both finished on 0.185, and the baseline trailed on 0.2362. With the same headline pick across five models, the gap reflects how much probability each put behind the home win, and Claude Keeper backed it most firmly.
The same five models also flagged the home win as a value pick at 1.44 in the head-to-head market. All five hit, each returning +0.44 per unit staked. The baseline made no value pick, so it neither gained nor lost there.
Why the models agreed on 2-0
The pre-match picture pointed one way. Arsenal’s ratings in the input were 1.105 for attack and 0.663 for defence, against 0.9317 and 1.0167 for Everton. Lower is better on the defensive figure, and Arsenal’s was far tighter. Before kick-off they had 18 points from seven games, with six wins and a 11-5 goal difference.
The head-to-head record backed that up. Arsenal won 2-0 at home against Everton in March 2026 and 1-0 at Goodison Park in December 2025. A repeat of the March score was an obvious pick.
There was also some Arsenal confidence to lean on. David Raya said the team had lost one game in 11 this season, according to [1]. [2] reported that Noni Madueke scored the winner at Nottingham Forest after coming on at half-time. Not every note was glowing: [3] examined Arsenal’s drop-off from set pieces, citing chances missed against Forest and Aston Villa. That is a reason to doubt a big margin, which may be why every model stopped at two goals.
Everton’s difficult run
Everton arrived in poor form. Their last five league results read L, D, W, D, D, and they came into the game after a 2-0 home loss to Chelsea on 17 October and a 2-2 draw at Hull City. Their ratings suggested an average attack and a leaky defence, and the points on the board were modest for a side that had drawn four of its first seven.
The off-field picture did not help. David Moyes said he was left with only 18 senior outfield players after the summer window, according to [4], which also reported that a move for Monaco forward Folarin Balogun collapsed. [5] also confirmed that Everton were deducted points for breaking profit and sustainability rules.
A thin squad and a goal-light attack made a shutout defeat at Arsenal a likely outcome. It arrived: Everton failed to score for the second league game running, and the 2-0 result left them with two defeats in a row.
What it means
Arsenal now sit second in the Premier League with 21 points from eight games (W7 D0 L1, goals 13 for, 5 against). The result also continues a strong week. They drew 2-2 at Bayern München in the Champions League on 21 October and beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 on 18 October. Their only league defeat so far was the 3-0 loss at Brighton in September. Next comes the sternest test of the run: Liverpool v Arsenal on 1 November. Arsenal’s goals against column is the number to watch, because the set-piece goals that were so reliable last season are the obvious place to find an edge.
Everton are 11th with 10 points from eight (W2 D4 L2, goals 8 for, 9 against). Their form is two straight league defeats without a goal, and they have to travel to Newcastle on 2 November. That fixture asks whether a squad Moyes called thin can score again after two blanks. The site’s forecasts for both games lock 24 hours before kick-off, and we will grade them in the same way.
Sources
- BBC Sport: Arsenal criticism comes from very small minority - Arteta bbc.co.uk ↩
- The Guardian: Mikel Arteta has mastered the art of making substitutions at Arsenal theguardian.com ↩
- Sky Sports: Have set-piece kings Arsenal really become set-piece strugglers? skysports.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Everton up for sale again - so what next as owners TFG look for a way out? bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Why do Man City fans boo pre-match anthems? bbc.co.uk ↩
