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Tactics & Lineups Arsenal FC · Friday, 23 October 2026 at 18:25 BST

Arsenal Host Everton Amidst Form and Injury Contrasts

Arsenal welcome Everton to the Emirates, with the Gunners in strong form and Everton grappling with squad issues and recent penalties.

predict.game Sources: 19 ↓

In short

  • Arsenal are in excellent form, winning four of their last five league games, and sit second in the table.
  • Everton have been hit with a points deduction and are dealing with significant squad depth issues and key player absences.
  • All prediction models strongly favour an Arsenal home win, with most forecasting a 2-0 victory.

Match Overview

Arsenal are set to host Everton at the Emirates Stadium in what promises to be a compelling Premier League encounter. The Gunners, currently second in the league with 18 points from seven games, come into this fixture on the back of strong form, having won four of their last five matches. Their defensive record has been particularly impressive, conceding only five goals this season. Manager Mikel Arteta recently extended his contract until 2030, signaling stability at the club [1]. However, Arsenal have faced challenges in converting set-piece opportunities recently, with Kai Havertz and Gabriel Magalhães missing chances against Nottingham Forest, and Riccardo Calafiori also failing to convert from a Martin Odegaard free-kick earlier in the season [2]. Despite this, they secured a 1-0 away win against Nottingham Forest in their last outing, with Noni Madueke scoring the decisive goal after coming on as a half-time substitute [3]. David Raya highlighted Arsenal’s strong overall record, stating they have lost only one game in 11 this season [4].

Everton, managed by David Moyes, find themselves in eighth position with 10 points, though this includes a recent points deduction for breaching profit and sustainability rules [5]. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five league matches. The Toffees suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Chelsea in their most recent fixture. Everton’s squad depth has been a concern, with Moyes stating he was left with only 18 senior outfield players after the summer transfer window [6]. They also missed out on signing Monaco forward Folarin Balogun [6].

Team News and Key Absences

Arsenal will be without Max Dowman, who withdrew from England’s U19 squad due to injury [7]. Mikel Merino is also sidelined, having suffered a stress fracture in his right foot earlier in the year [8]. Aaron Ramsdale, who lost his starting position in the 2023-24 season, remains a backup option [9]. Key players like Riccardo Calafiori, Piero Hincapié, and Ezri Konsa have featured recently, with Calafiori notably scoring a goal [10].

Everton face more significant personnel challenges. Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford is out after pleading guilty to driving without due care or attention [11]. Martin Sherif is also unavailable, having been fined by the FA for breaching betting rules [12]. New summer signings for Everton include Tyrique George [13], Ainsley Maitland-Niles from Lyon [14], and Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough [15]. Despite Maitland-Niles’ arrival, David Moyes has continued to deploy Merlin Röhl at right-back [16]. Jarrad Branthwaite has earned an England call-up, highlighting his strong form [17], and Christian Norgaard was a surprise starter in a recent match [18]. Former player Duncan Ferguson has been appointed manager of Glentoran [19].

Prediction

All prediction models are in strong agreement, forecasting a comfortable home win for Arsenal. The baseline model predicts a 1-0 victory for Arsenal, with a 60.5% chance of a home win. Opus, Kimi-Cool, Gemini-Flash, gpt-striker, and Deep-Thinker all converge on a 2-0 Arsenal victory. Opus gives Arsenal a 72.0% chance of winning, citing their dominant form, superior ratings, and recent head-to-head dominance. Kimi-Cool aligns with this, giving a 68.0% probability for a home win, emphasizing Arsenal’s elite defence and strong home form against Everton’s limited squad depth. Gemini-Flash and Deep-Thinker both predict a 65.0% chance for an Arsenal win, highlighting Arsenal’s strong home record and Everton’s defensive issues. Gpt-striker offers a 70.0% probability, noting Arsenal’s dominance at home and Everton’s recent poor form. The consensus among models points to Arsenal securing three points with a clean sheet.

What it means

Arsenal’s strong start to the season sees them sitting second in the Premier League with 18 points from seven games, just behind the leaders. Their form of WWLWW indicates a consistent ability to secure victories, and a win against Everton would further solidify their position at the top. The next fixture for Arsenal is a crucial away game against Manchester City, a match that could have significant title implications. Maintaining their winning momentum will be vital heading into that encounter. For Everton, currently eighth with 10 points, their form of LDWDD reflects a struggle for consistency, exacerbated by a recent points deduction. A loss here would further hinder their efforts to climb the table. Their next fixture is a home game against West Ham United, a match where they will be looking to bounce back and secure much-needed points to improve their standing.

Sources

  1. BBC Sport: Arteta joins highest paid managers with new Arsenal deal bbc.co.uk ↩
  2. Sky Sports: Have set-piece kings Arsenal really become set-piece strugglers? skysports.com ↩
  3. The Guardian: Mikel Arteta has mastered the art of making substitutions at Arsenal theguardian.com ↩
  4. BBC Sport: Arsenal criticism comes from very small minority - Arteta bbc.co.uk ↩
  5. BBC Sport: Why do Man City fans boo pre-match anthems? bbc.co.uk ↩
  6. BBC Sport: Everton up for sale again - so what next as owners TFG look for a way out? bbc.co.uk ↩
  7. Sky Sports: Papers: Liverpool's Jacquet suffers hamstring strain on France duty skysports.com ↩
  8. BBC Sport: 'I'm fortunate to be alive' - Merino relives bus attack bbc.co.uk ↩
  9. BBC Sport: Award-winner to fourth choice - what has gone wrong for Ramsdale? bbc.co.uk ↩
  10. Football Italia: Calafiori scores in Beckham boots as Arsenal fight back: ‘My goal is to play is as many positions as possible’ football-italia.net ↩
  11. BBC Sport: Pickford 'almost caused crash' with careless driving bbc.co.uk ↩
  12. BBC Sport: Everton's Sherif fined for breaching betting rules bbc.co.uk ↩
  13. BBC Sport: Everton FC bbc.co.uk ↩
  14. BBC Sport: After transfer worries, Everton have an unlikely new hero bbc.co.uk ↩
  15. BBC Sport: Everton FC bbc.co.uk ↩
  16. The Guardian: Maitland-Niles stunner rescues late point for Everton against Manchester United theguardian.com ↩
  17. BBC Sport: Everton FC bbc.co.uk ↩
  18. BBC Sport: Neto stars but who was subdued? - player ratings for Everton v Chelsea bbc.co.uk ↩
  19. BBC Sport: I'll give Glentoran everything, vows new boss Ferguson bbc.co.uk ↩

Written by predict.game's models from the sources listed. How our content is made →

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