Roma’s unbeaten start meets a Cagliari side in freefall
AS Roma host Cagliari Calcio at the Stadio Olimpico on 27 October (19:45 UTC) in round nine of Serie A, and the table points one way. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side are third on 18 points from eight games, with five wins, three draws and no defeats. Their goal difference is the standout: 19 scored and only six conceded.
The latest results are more mixed than that record suggests. Roma drew 3-3 at Napoli on 24 October, which was a rare night of defensive looseness. Before that came a 2-0 home win over Genoa, a 0-0 draw at Como and a 2-2 draw at home to Inter. Their form string reads DWDDW, so they have drawn more than they have won lately, but they have not lost.
Cagliari, under Fabio Pisacane, are ninth on 13 points (four wins, one draw, three defeats), with six goals scored and nine conceded. Their form string is LLDWW, and the two defeats are recent: 4-0 at Monza on 19 October and 2-0 at home to Bologna on 24 October. Before that they drew 1-1 with Juventus and won away at Udinese and Atalanta, so the slump is only two games old. It has still been a heavy one.
Squad news and the Cagliari-Roma connection
The input holds no confirmed team news for this fixture, so lineups are best treated as open. For Roma, [1] listed Lorenzo Pellegrini as available for selection in mid-October. [2] reported that Marten de Roon and Pierluigi Gollini have joined the club, and [3] said De Roon is expected to step in as a midfielder. Paulo Dybala, Bryan Cristante and Gianluca Mancini all agreed new contracts on reduced salaries, according to [4].
Cagliari have an unusual link to the hosts. Alessandro Romano joined them on loan from Roma with an obligation to buy for €6.5m, [5] reported. He later [6], according to The Guardian.
That piece also noted Maldini was scoring in a fourth consecutive Serie A game as of 12 October. He is Cagliari’s clearest attacking threat, but the team has not scored since. A [7] report on Alessandro Deiola’s knee surgery noted he had started all five of Cagliari’s league games at that point. The input does not say whether he is available now.
What the models say
The Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, expects 2.12 goals for Roma and 0.77 for Cagliari. It gives Roma a 68.6% chance of winning, with 19.1% for a draw and 12.3% for an away win. Its most likely scoreline is 2-0. It puts both teams scoring at 47.1% and over 2.5 goals at 55.0%.
The team ratings point the same way. Roma’s attack rating is 1.53 and their defence rating is 0.82, while Cagliari’s are 0.78 and 1.04. Both ratings come from a sample of 20 matches.
The six predictors are close to unanimous on the result:
- Claude Keeper: 2-0 Roma, 72% home win.
- Kimi Cool: 2-0 Roma, 72% home win.
- GPT Striker: 2-0 Roma, 70% home win.
- Gemini Thunder: 2-1 Roma, 65% home win. It flags Maldini’s form as the main threat to Roma.
- DeepThinker: 2-1 Roma, 65% home win.
Every model backs Roma, with home-win probabilities from 65% to 72%. The disagreement is only over whether Cagliari score. The baseline’s 47.1% for both teams scoring suggests that is close to a coin flip.
What it means
For Roma, the table says they are a top-three side who have yet to lose. Three of their last five league games were draws, though, so the open question is converting control into wins. Cagliari’s recent scoring record is poor, and a home win here would help Roma’s push towards the top of the table.
For Cagliari, ninth place and 13 points is a respectable position, but two straight defeats without a goal have cut into it. The head-to-head record is a small reminder that this fixture is not one-way. Cagliari won 1-0 on 7 December 2025, and Roma won 2-0 on 9 February 2026. The test for Pisacane’s side is whether they can end the scoring drought at the Olimpico, and Maldini is the most likely route to a goal.
Sources
- Football Italia: Gasperini: ‘Roma and Como same level, cannot predict Real Madrid choices’ football-italia.net ↩
- Marca: 'Vendetta' en la 'zona DOGSO' marca.com ↩
- Football Italia: Gasperini: ‘Roma fans waited years, Real Madrid best in the world’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Galantic: ‘Roma return to Champions League fundamental after seven years’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Juventus directors watched Italy international Romano in action against Turkey football-italia.net ↩
- The Guardian: Daniel Maldini finds his feet at Cagliari after years in family’s Serie A shadow theguardian.com ↩
- Football Italia: Bad news for Cagliari as Deiola undergoes knee surgery football-italia.net ↩
