A home win, but a messier one than forecast
AS Roma beat Cagliari Calcio 4-2, a result that carried the expected winner but not the expected shape. Every model on the site backed the hosts, and none expected six goals. Four predicted 2-0 (Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, GPT Striker and the Baseline) and two predicted 2-1 (Gemini Thunder and DeepThinker). The final score cleared those forecasts by two or three goals in total, and Cagliari scored twice against a Roma defence the site’s ratings had rated as the sturdier of the two.
The pre-match numbers explain the consensus. Roma went in third with 18 points from eight games, unbeaten, with 19 goals scored and six conceded. The site’s rating gave them an attack figure of 1.5288 and a defence figure of 0.8206. Cagliari were ninth on 13 points with an attack rating of 0.779 and a defence rating of 1.0429, and their form line read LLDWW. The head-to-head record was split: Cagliari won 1-0 in December 2025, and Roma won 2-0 in February 2026.
A win by two clear goals looked the sensible central case. Instead the match opened up. Roma had just played out a 3-3 draw at Napoli, so goals were not a surprise in their recent games. Cagliari, though, had been blunt in attack, failing to score in their previous two. Scoring twice here was a break from that run, even in defeat.
How the six models were graded
On the basic call, the table is clean: all six got the outcome right and none got the exact score. The Brier score, which rewards confident correct probabilities, separates them. Claude Keeper and Kimi Cool shared the best mark at 0.1208. GPT Striker followed on 0.14, the Baseline on 0.1502, and Gemini Thunder and DeepThinker finished level on 0.185.
The gap is small, but it follows the pattern of the scorelines. The two models that gave Cagliari a goal, with 2-1 forecasts, scored worst on Brier, which suggests their probability spreads were less committed to the home win than the leaders’. A 4-2 result does not punish a 2-1 call in score terms any less than a 2-0 call, since both miss, but the probability measure favoured the more decisive forecasts.
The value picks tell a separate story:
- Claude Keeper: over on the totals market at 1.66. It hit, for +0.66. That is notable because its own score prediction was 2-0, which would have been under.
- GPT Striker and DeepThinker: both backed Roma to win at 1.34. Both hit, each returning +0.34.
- Gemini Thunder: backed Cagliari to win at 9.5. It missed, for -1.0.
- Kimi Cool and the Baseline: no value pick.
The long-shot away pick was the only losing selection of the day, and it cost more than the three winners earned combined.
Cagliari’s slide continues
For Cagliari this was a third straight league defeat, after a 4-0 loss at Monza on 19 October and a 0-2 home loss to Bologna on 24 October. In those three games they have conceded ten goals and scored two. Their last point came in a 1-1 home draw with Juventus on 11 October, a match in which [1] noted that Daniel Maldini was scoring in his fourth consecutive Serie A game.
The squad news before the match hinted at the strain. [2] reported that Alessandro Deiola, who had started all five of Cagliari’s Serie A games to that point, needed knee surgery. Losing a first-choice starter is the kind of disruption that can unsettle a back line. There was also a connection to the opposition: [3] records that Alessandro Romano joined Cagliari on loan from Roma, with an obligation to buy for €6.5m.
Cagliari have shown they can hurt a good side, since scoring twice at the Roma level is not nothing. The issue is the other end: they have now let in four goals in two of their last three away trips. Their goal difference of -5 (8 for, 13 against) is the weakest part of an otherwise mid-table record.
What it means
Roma sit third in Serie A on 21 points from nine games (W6 D3 L0), with 23 goals scored and 8 conceded. They remain unbeaten in the league. The form is not flawless, though: before this match they drew 3-3 at Napoli, and in the Champions League they lost 3-4 to Real Madrid and beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0. That is a team scoring freely, but also conceding often in open games. Their next fixture is at Udinese on 31 October, and the site’s forecast for it locks 24 hours before kick-off. The question there is whether the defence that conceded twice here can tighten up on the road.
Cagliari are ninth on 13 points from nine games (W4 D1 L4), with 8 goals scored and 13 conceded. Three defeats in a row, each by two or more goals, turn a comfortable-looking position into a shaky one. Their next game is at Lazio on 1 November, and the site’s forecast for that fixture also locks 24 hours before kick-off. After a week of conceding freely, that match asks whether they can restore some defensive shape, or whether the slide extends to four.
Sources
- The Guardian: Daniel Maldini finds his feet at Cagliari after years in family’s Serie A shadow theguardian.com ↩
- Football Italia: Bad news for Cagliari as Deiola undergoes knee surgery football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Juventus directors watched Italy international Romano in action against Turkey football-italia.net ↩
