A narrow home win that settled the prediction board
Athletic Club beat Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-1 on 1 November, a result that matched what every predictor on the site expected. The scoreline came with a twist, though. Half the field had pencilled in a 1-0 and the other half a 2-1, so the match was settled by how many goals each side would score, not by who would win.
The result continued a run of tight Basque derbies. Last season’s two meetings finished 3-2 to Real Sociedad in November 2025 and 1-1 at Athletic’s ground in February 2026. Three of the last three meetings have seen both teams score, and this one followed the pattern.
For Athletic, it was a second straight league win at home, after the 4-0 against Getafe CF the previous weekend. For Real Sociedad, it ended a four-match winning run in La Liga. The visitors had scored 13 goals across their previous three league wins, so conceding twice and losing was a sharp change of direction.
How the models graded out
All six entries called the home win, so the outcome column is clean. The separation comes from exact scores and Brier scores, where lower is better.
GPT Striker predicted 2-1 and recorded a Brier score of 0.455, the best of the five named models. Gemini Thunder also picked 2-1 and got the exact score, but its Brier score of 0.5784 was the weakest of the group. That is a useful reminder that a correct scoreline does not guarantee a good probability grade; it depends on how much confidence was placed on the home win and on other outcomes.
Claude Keeper (0.5054), Kimi Cool (0.5048) and DeepThinker (0.54) all predicted 1-0. They had the right winner but missed the exact score, and their Brier scores sat in a tight band. The Baseline, a simple reference model, predicted 2-1 and posted 0.3955, the best number on the board. Beating the Baseline remains the real test for each model.
On the value side, Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all flagged the home side in the h2h market at odds of 2.15. All five hit, each returning +1.15 per unit staked. The Baseline made no value pick.
The pre-match picture
The context sheet pointed to a closer game than the home win might suggest. Real Sociedad came in fifth with 19 points from 10 games and a form line of WWWWL, having won 3-2 at Valencia CF, 3-2 against RC Deportivo La Coruña, 5-2 at Málaga CF and 2-1 against Levante UD. The site’s team ratings, built on a 20-match sample, gave them an attack of 1.2713 and a defence of 1.2257, both above Athletic’s 0.9718 and 0.9744.
Athletic arrived seventh with 12 points from nine games and a form line of WLDDD: draws against Elche CF, Deportivo Alavés and Valencia, a 3-1 loss at Levante, then the 4-0 win over Getafe. Edin Terzić’s side had scored 12 and conceded nine in the league.
The team news was mixed. In its 25 October preview, [1] listed Aymeric Laporte as suspended and Gorka Guruzeta as still injured. Both were absences for the Getafe game, so their availability on 1 November was not confirmed in the input. For Real Sociedad, [2] reported Jon Aramburu out injured, and a separate [3] report said Luken Beitia had sprained his left ankle in training. Those reports were also dated before the match.
What it means
The table barely moved, but the direction did. Athletic are seventh in La Liga with 15 points from 10 games (four wins, three draws, three defeats, 14 goals for and 10 against). Three points lift them out of a stretch that had produced three draws in four games. Their last five now read W, W, L, D, D, and the two wins arrived with six goals scored and one conceded.
Real Sociedad remain fifth with 19 points from 11 games (six wins, one draw, four defeats, 20 goals for and 20 against). A goal difference of zero for a top-five side is unusual and shows how open their matches have been. Four of their last five league games had them conceding at least twice. They scored plenty, but they have not kept things tight, and this loss was another example.
The next fixtures ask different questions. Athletic travel to Osasuna on 7 November, so they must show that their home form carries away from San Mamés. Their last two league matches away from home produced a 0-0 and a 1-3 loss. Real Sociedad host Rayo Vallecano on 8 November and need to show whether the defensive lapses were a blip or a trend. Home games have not hurt them lately, with 3-2 and 2-1 wins in October, so the attacking side of the equation looks sound.
The site’s forecasts for both games lock 24 hours before kick-off, and the models will be graded on them in the same public way.
