The result and the grades
SC Freiburg won 2-1 away at FC Augsburg on 31 October, and the pre-match models read it almost perfectly. Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all predicted 1-2 and all got the exact score. Only the Baseline, which went for a 2-1 home win, missed on both outcome and scoreline.
The Brier scores separate the five that agreed on the score. Gemini Thunder and GPT Striker tied for the best at 0.455, followed by Kimi Cool at 0.4704, DeepThinker at 0.54 and Claude Keeper at 0.5418. A lower Brier score means the model put more probability on what actually happened. The Baseline finished last at 0.7312.
The value picks were split. Claude Keeper, Gemini Thunder and GPT Striker each backed the away side at 2.16, and each returned +1.16. Kimi Cool took the draw at 3.79 and lost its unit. DeepThinker backed the home side at 3.0 and also lost. The Baseline made no value pick. A model can call the score right and still choose a poor price, which is why the site grades the two separately.
Why Freiburg looked the likelier winner
Going in, Freiburg were third with 13 points from seven games, with a record of four wins, one draw and two defeats. They had scored 16 and conceded 9. Their 5-0 home win over Borussia Mönchengladbach on 12 September showed what the attack could do, and they beat Schalke 2-1 on 11 October. According to the [1] match report, Maximilian Eggestein scored the opener, Matthias Ginter assisted it, and Vincenzo Grifo came on in the 83rd minute to assist the winner.
The form line was less tidy. Freiburg lost 2-1 at Bayer Leverkusen on 18 October and 3-1 at home to Bayern Munich on 25 October. Even so, those were two games against strong opposition, and their ratings, attack 1.0885 and defence 0.9948 over a sample of 20 matches, held up well. The squad also had good news off the pitch: Ginter [2], and Derry Scherhant earned his [3].
Augsburg’s draw-heavy pattern
Augsburg came in ninth with 9 points from seven games, and their form line read draw, loss, draw, loss, draw. Their results were close but not decisive: 2-2 with Leverkusen, a 3-2 defeat at Werder Bremen, a 2-2 draw with Bayern, a 4-3 loss at Elversberg and a 1-1 draw with Union Berlin. That is 11 goals scored and 12 conceded across those five matches, so they were involved in plenty of goals at both ends.
The rating numbers fit that picture. Augsburg’s attack rated 1.1451, higher than Freiburg’s, but their defence rated 1.0912, weaker than Freiburg’s 0.9948. Manuel Baum’s side had a decent attack and a leaky back line, and a team of that shape tends to be in tight games without converting them into wins.
There were encouraging signs in the squad. Arijon Ibrahimovic [4] from Bayern Munich, Michael Gregoritsch was [5], and Han-Noah Massengo scored in the [6]. The head-to-head was balanced too: Augsburg won 3-1 at Freiburg in August 2025, and the sides drew 2-2 in January 2026.
What it means
For Augsburg, the defeat leaves them ninth on 9 points from 8 games, with two wins, three draws and three losses, and a goal record of 18 for and 15 against. They have not won in their last five league matches, and the run of draws and narrow losses has kept them mid-table rather than letting them climb. Their next fixture is away at RB Leipzig on 7 November, which asks whether they can keep a clean sheet against a strong attack. The site’s forecast for that game locks 24 hours before kick-off.
For Freiburg, the win moves them to 16 points from 8 games, with five wins, one draw and two losses, and a goal record of 18 for and 10 against. They remain third and have answered back-to-back defeats by Leverkusen and Bayern with an away win. Their next match is at home to Union Berlin on 8 November. Union drew 1-1 at Augsburg the week before, so that game asks whether Freiburg can turn home control into three points. The site’s forecast for it also locks 24 hours before kick-off.
Sources
- Bundesliga.com: Keisuke Gotō's late header helps ten-man Freiburg down Schalke to claim top spot bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Matthias Ginter extends contract with Freiburg bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Derry Scherhant on Freiburg's table-topping start to the season, playing for Germany and more bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Wie Ibrahimovic in Augsburg funktionieren kann kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Manuel Baum's gradual Augsburg revolution gathers speed ahead of Bayern Munich clash bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Ten-man Augsburg held by ten-man Union Berlin in frantic draw on Matchday 7 bundesliga.com ↩
