Form and standings
FC Augsburg host SC Freiburg at the WWK Arena in Round 8 of the Bundesliga, with kick-off at 14:30 UTC on 31 October. The table puts the visitors clearly ahead. Freiburg are third with 13 points from seven games (four wins, one draw, two defeats) and a goal difference of +7, from 16 scored and nine conceded. Augsburg are ninth on 9 points, with two wins, three draws and two defeats, and have scored 17 and conceded 13.
The recent trend is less tidy for the visitors. Freiburg’s form reads LLWDW, most recent first, and their last two games were defeats: 2-1 away at Bayer Leverkusen and 3-1 at home to Bayern Munich. Before that came a 2-1 home win over Schalke and a 2-2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt. The 5-0 home win over Borussia Mönchengladbach on 12 September remains their high point.
Augsburg’s run is a steady slide into mediocrity. They have drawn, lost, drawn, lost and drawn in their last five, most recently a 1-1 home draw with Union Berlin. Before that came a 4-3 defeat at SV 07 Elversberg and a 2-2 draw with Bayern at home. They have scored in every one of those games, which fits the baseline’s high-scoring outlook for Saturday.
Team news and key players
Freiburg’s main absentee is Florian Muslija, who is out with a knee injury, according to [1]. Elsewhere the picture is settled. Maximilian Eggestein scored the opening goal against Schalke and Matthias Ginter assisted it, as the [2] shows. Vincenzo Grifo then came off the bench in the 83rd minute and set up the winner. Ginter has also extended his contract, a sign of continuity under coach Julian Schuster.
Yannik Engelhardt has stepped in to fill the gap left by Johan Manzambi, as [3] reported. Winger Derry Scherhant won his first two senior Germany caps during the recent international break, according to [4]. Igor Matanovic scored twice against Gladbach, per [5].
Augsburg, under Manuel Baum, have reshaped their squad. Arijon Ibrahimovic arrived on loan from Bayern Munich, and Michael Gregoritsch was brought back on a permanent deal and started against Union. Han-Noah Massengo scored in that game, and Anton Kade was in the line-up. Fabian Rieder has moved into central midfield, which [6] describes as his best position. Kristijan Jakić has left for Greece.
What the models say
The site’s Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, expects 2.10 goals for Augsburg and 1.71 for Freiburg. That gives the hosts a 47.3% chance of winning, with 20.9% for a draw and 31.9% for Freiburg. Its most likely score is 2-1 to Augsburg. It also rates both teams scoring at 72.0% and over 2.5 goals at 73.4%. The underlying ratings are close: Augsburg’s attack rating is 1.15 against Freiburg’s 1.09, while Freiburg’s defence rating of 0.99 compares with 1.09 for the hosts.
The five AI predictors disagree with the baseline, and with each other only on degree. Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all forecast a 1-2 away win. Their Freiburg win probabilities run from 40% to 45%, and their draw estimates from 25% to 30%. Kimi Cool and DeepThinker give the draw the most weight, citing Augsburg’s home resilience and the competitive head-to-head record.
That record supports the caution. Augsburg won 3-1 at Freiburg in August 2025, and the return fixture at the WWK Arena in January ended 2-2. The models’ common reasoning is Freiburg’s higher league position and tighter defence against an Augsburg side that has drawn or lost every recent game. The baseline, by contrast, rewards Augsburg’s higher goal output and home advantage.
What it means
For Freiburg, this is a chance to stop a two-game slide against Leverkusen and Bayern, both strong opponents, and to hold on to third place. Thirteen points from seven games is a good return. A third straight defeat, against a side below them in the table, would raise questions about the early-season form that produced the 5-0 win over Gladbach.
For Augsburg, ninth place with nine points is respectable, but the form line of DLDLD shows a team that avoids defeat without winning. Two wins in seven is the issue, and 13 goals conceded in seven games explains why so many of their results are draws. The visit of a top-three side is the sort of fixture where the home attack, with Gregoritsch, Ibrahimovic and Massengo all in the mix, has to turn its goals into three points.
The forecast therefore splits the outlook. The baseline sees an open, high-scoring game that Augsburg edge, and the AI predictors see Freiburg’s quality winning it by one goal. A goal for each side is the likeliest outcome either way, and the draw is the result the models treat as least likely.
Sources
- Bundesliga.com: Bundesliga Matchday 8 probable teams bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Keisuke Gotō's late header helps ten-man Freiburg down Schalke to claim top spot bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Philipp Treu on playing for Jürgen Klopp's Germany and Freiburg's perfect start bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Derry Scherhant on Freiburg's table-topping start to the season, playing for Germany and more bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Engelhardts Duell mit Matanovic: "Bei St. Pauli oder Frankfurt hätte ich ihn Igor gegeben" kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Fabian Rieder on Augsburg's table-topping start to the season, the World Cup and more bundesliga.com ↩
