Barcelona vs Alavés preview: Flick's side look to bounce back at Camp Nou

Barcelona look to answer the Clásico defeat

Barcelona take on Deportivo Alavés at Camp Nou in round 11, kicking off at 20:00 UTC on 31 October. Hansi Flick’s side sit top of the table with 27 points from 10 games, built on nine wins and a single defeat. They have scored 40 league goals and conceded 11, the best attacking record in the data we hold.

That one defeat came last time out. Real Madrid won 2-1 at Camp Nou on 25 October, which ended a run of four straight league wins. Those wins were a 7-2 thrashing of Racing Santander, a 3-1 win at Sevilla, a 3-0 home win over Getafe and a 5-2 victory at Real Betis on 17 October.

The squad has been reshaped this season. Barcelona have signed João Cancelo, according to ^[1]. Dominik Livaković arrived from Fenerbahçe in late August, ^[2]. Gabriel Jesus came in as an alternative after the move for Julián Álvarez failed, per ^[3]. ^[4] reports that Raphinha has extended his contract until 2030.

Alavés arrive winless and short of options

Quique Sánchez Flores took charge of Alavés in March, ^[5]. His side are seventh with 12 points from 10 games (three wins, three draws, four defeats), with 14 goals scored and 11 conceded. That is a respectable position, but the recent run is poor. Their last five league results read a 1-0 home defeat to Valencia, a 0-0 draw at Athletic Club, a 2-1 home loss to Atlético Madrid, a 2-1 defeat at Celta Vigo and a 1-1 home draw with Málaga on 23 October.

There is some good news up front. ^[6] that Aitor Mañas scored against Málaga. Alavés have also been settled in selection. Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia and Abde Rebbach have each started every league match this season, ^[7].

The absentees matter. Mikel Rodríguez has ^[8], and the same report lists Facundo Garcés as unavailable while serving a one-year FIFA suspension.

What the numbers and the models say

Our Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, makes Barcelona heavy favourites. It gives a 77.7% chance of a home win, 13.0% for a draw and 9.2% for an away win. Expected goals are 3.02 for Barcelona and 0.99 for Alavés. The most likely single scoreline is 3-0. The baseline puts both teams scoring at 59.8% and over 2.5 goals at 76.2%.

The team ratings point the same way. Barcelona’s attack rating is 1.90 against Alavés’s 1.00. The defensive ratings are closer, at 0.86 for Barcelona and 0.99 for Alavés, where a lower figure is better.

The AI predictors agree on the outcome and differ only in how confident they are:

• Claude Keeper: 3-0, with a 91% home win.
• Gemini Thunder: 3-0, with an 85% home win.
• GPT Striker: 3-0, with an 85% home win.
• DeepThinker: 3-0, with an 80% home win.
• Kimi Cool: 3-1, with a 78% home win.

Kimi Cool is the only source to give Alavés a goal, and the baseline’s own most likely away-win scoreline is 2-1.

Key factors at Camp Nou

The head-to-head record is more mixed than the headline numbers suggest. Barcelona beat Alavés 3-1 at home on 29 November 2025, but Alavés won 1-0 on 13 May 2026. Barcelona’s quality is clear, but this is not a fixture they have owned.

The main question is how Barcelona respond to the Real Madrid defeat. Their attack has regularly produced three or more goals, and Alavés have scored only once in each of their last three league games and have lost two of them. Gabriel Jesus was ^[9] for Barcelona in the win at Betis, according to BBC Sport. Hamza Abdelkarim, meanwhile, ^[10] for that trip because of a technical decision and played with the reserves, per Marca.

The upset case rests on Alavés defending deep and staying in the game. The numbers give them roughly a one-in-eleven chance of winning. The more likely scenario is a home win that gets Barcelona back on track.

Sources

1. Marca: El mejor doblaje de Europa marca.com ↩
2. Marca: Livakovic se estrena con el Barça marca.com ↩
3. Marca: Deco zanja el 'Caso Julián Álvarez' y pasa página en el Barcelona: "Es pasado" marca.com ↩
4. The Guardian: Raphinha: ‘In my head I was leaving Barça, but a few small words can change you’ theguardian.com ↩
5. Marca: El mejor Alavés de la historia marca.com ↩
6. Marca: Funes: "Hay una falta clara en el gol del Alavés" marca.com ↩
7. Marca: Ville Koski se consolida como hombre fuerte de Quique marca.com ↩
8. Marca: Drama en el Alavés: Garcés también tiene roto el ligamento cruzado marca.com ↩
9. BBC Sport: Lamine Yamal opens scoring as Barcelona beat Real Betis bbc.co.uk ↩
10. Marca: Betis vs Barcelona: El Betis de Champions, la prueba más dura del Barça marca.com ↩