Match Preview
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are set to host Bayer 04 Leverkusen at the PreZero Arena in a Bundesliga clash. The home side, currently 14th in the league with 6 points from six games, will be looking to improve their inconsistent form. Hoffenheim have won two and lost four of their league matches, with their last five results showing a WLLWL pattern. Their recent home form includes a 2-3 loss to Hamburger SV and a 2-3 defeat against Borussia Dortmund. Coach Christian Ilzer’s side has seen some changes, with Hennes Behrens joining and Arthur Chaves departing after his loan spell ended [1]. Recent starting XI changes for Hoffenheim include Alexander Prass, Robin Hranac, Mats Rots, and Adam Hložek all featuring in the last match against Borussia Mönchengladbach [2]. However, they will be without Patrick Wimmer, who is sidelined with a thigh injury until the next international break [3].
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, on the other hand, arrive in excellent form, sitting 4th in the Bundesliga with 13 points. Under coach Carles Martínez, they have recorded four wins and one draw in their last five league outings (WWWDW). Their recent away form includes a thrilling 4-3 victory over 1. FSV Mainz 05 and a 2-2 draw against FC Augsburg. Leverkusen have been active in the transfer market, with Miguel Gutiérrez joining from Napoli and Facundo Medina signing a five-year contract after arriving from Marseille [4]. Moussa Diaby also returned to the club on deadline day [5]. Key players like Ibrahim Maza and Ezequiel Fernández have scored for Leverkusen, while Miguel Gutiérrez has impressed at left-back [4]. However, Christian Kofane is out due to injury, and Ibrahim Maza is doubtful with a foot injury [6].
Form and Head-to-Head
Hoffenheim’s recent form has been a mixed bag, with two wins and three losses in their last five Bundesliga matches. They secured a 2-1 away victory against Borussia Mönchengladbach in their most recent fixture but suffered back-to-back home defeats before that. Their defensive record shows 14 goals conceded in six games, highlighting a potential vulnerability that Leverkusen’s strong attack could exploit. The team has seen several players, including Alexander Prass, Robin Hranac, Mats Rots, and Adam Hložek, integrated into the starting lineup recently [2].
Bayer Leverkusen are in a much stronger position, having lost only one league game this season. Their attacking rating of 1.2812 and defensive rating of 0.9349 indicate a well-balanced side. They have scored 16 goals and conceded 9 in six matches. Recent results include wins against SC Freiburg (2-1), 1. FSV Mainz 05 (4-3), and RB Leipzig (2-0). The team’s depth has been bolstered by new arrivals like Kennet Eichhorn [7]. Edmond Tapsoba is the current club captain [5].
In their last two head-to-head encounters, Hoffenheim secured a 1-0 home win in January 2026, while Leverkusen won 2-1 away in August 2025. These results suggest a closely contested rivalry, but current form heavily favors the visitors.
Predictions
The models are in strong agreement, predicting an away victory for Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The most likely scoreline across all predictions is 1-2 in favor of Leverkusen. The baseline model forecasts a 49.9% chance for an away win, with expected goals of 1.738 for Hoffenheim and 2.26 for Leverkusen. Opus, Kimi-Cool, Gemini-Flash, Gpt-Striker, and Deep-Thinker all align with this sentiment, citing Leverkusen’s superior form, league position, and attacking strength as key factors. Gpt-Striker gives Leverkusen the highest probability of winning at 55.0%.
Leverkusen’s attacking rating of 1.2812 is significantly higher than Hoffenheim’s 1.0029, while their defensive rating of 0.9349 is also superior to Hoffenheim’s 1.2132. These statistical advantages, combined with Hoffenheim’s current injury concerns, particularly the absence of Patrick Wimmer, strengthen the case for an away win. Despite Hoffenheim’s recent head-to-head success, the current momentum and overall squad strength of Bayer Leverkusen are expected to prevail in this encounter. The models also suggest a high probability of both teams scoring (73.8%) and over 2.5 goals in the match (76.1%).
What it means
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim currently sit 14th in the Bundesliga with 6 points from 6 games. Their form of WLLWL indicates a struggle for consistency, with more losses than wins. This match against a high-flying Bayer Leverkusen side presents a significant challenge. A loss would further cement their position in the lower half of the table, putting pressure on coach Christian Ilzer to turn things around. Their next fixture will be crucial in determining if they can climb out of their current slump.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are in 4th place with 13 points, showcasing strong form with WWWDW in their last five matches. An away win would solidify their position in the top four and maintain pressure on the teams above them. Their strong attacking and defensive ratings suggest they are genuine contenders this season. Continuing their winning streak would be vital for their aspirations, especially against a team struggling for form. The predicted away victory aligns with their current trajectory and ambitions for a strong league campaign.
Sources
- Bundesliga.com: Official Bundesliga transfer centre: Summer 2026 bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Alexander Prass steals the show as Hoffenheim edge winless Borussia Mönchengladbach bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Ausfall im XXL-Programm: Wimmer fehlt der TSG mit einer Oberschenkelverletzung kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bayer Leverkusen's Spanish-speaking reset under Carles Martínez bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Moussa Diaby on returning to Bayer Leverkusen, the fans and more bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Leverkusen plant mit Maza - Boniface "eine Option" kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bayer Leverkusen's Francis Onyeka named U19 Fritz Walter gold medal winner bundesliga.com ↩
